The Wagner Daily – Trend change on hourly chart

The Wagner Daily – March 22, 2021

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market timing model: S&P 500 – BUY, Nasdaq – Sell 

Our timing model was designed to keep trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

The market timing model remains on a sell signal for our aggressive growth trading approach, as most growth stocks are 25-40% off recent highs and in need of a few weeks of basing to produce reliable buy points.  The daily chart of the Nasdaq needs to set a higher low and reclaim the 20-day EMA, which for now is trending lower and in control (on the daily and 60-minute charts).

Note how the trend has changed on the hourly chart below shifting from higher highs and lows above the 20ema to lower highs and lows below the 20ema. Bears are in control on the hourly, as the price is in a downtrend with a 200ma that is sloping lower.

The Nasdaq needs to print a follow-through day before we put serious money to work on the long side. A follow-through day is a 1.5% or more advance on higher volume. Price should also climb back above the 20-day EMA and hold.

Crypto-related stocks remain strong. $SI, $RIOT, $MARA, and $NCTY are a few on our watchlist. 

$MARA is an official setup on Monday’s watchlist with an entry over the high of last Friday’s inside day.

While waiting for conditions in growth to improve, we continue to monitor setups in stocks with very strong RS ratings from IBD using the 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month RS ratings.

All the charts below are not official setups.

The next two charts are higher quality stocks with earnings and revenue growth.

$W is trying to break out from a big base but is struggling to make progress as it continues to stall at highs. This stock has the potential to run 50% or more in a few weeks but may not do much at all until conditions improve.

$UPST  post-earnings breakout was impressive, especially under current conditions. If $UPST does not follow through to the upside, then we’ll monitor for an entry on a pullback to the close of the gap-up day.

The next two stocks are not CANSLIM quality but have high relative strength ratings and explosive potential.

$AMTX has formed a tight trading range above the 10ema and is potentially in play over the two-day high.

$GMBL failed a downtrend line break from a tight range last Thursday but was able to bounce back the next day. A move through $18 that holds could lead to a strong advance.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• $FINV – buy at 8.75
• $JWN – buy at 43.15
• $AMTX – 20.61
• $NCTY – buy at 55.30
• $GMBL – buy at 18.15

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