The Wagner Daily – S&P 500 above 20-day EMA

The Wagner Daily – March 24, 2021

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market timing model: S&P 500 BUY,  Nasdaq Composite sell 

Our timing model was designed to keep trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

     (none)

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

Market conditions continue to deteriorate with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 breaking uptrend mode with a close below the 20-day EMA.

Russell 2000 ETF $IWM may be due for a bounce in a day or two, but is no longer in trend mode and will likely need a few weeks of sideways to lower action.

The S&P 500 remains above the 20-day EMA, but leadership within the index is selling off. $XLF (financials) and $XLE (energy) are below the 20-day EMA and no longer in trend mode.

$QQQ has failed to reclaim the 50-day MA since breaking down below the average in late February and may see further weakness if the two-day low does not hold. A test of the March low is certainly possible.

The lack of setups and recent false breakouts tell us there is no need to own growth stocks right now. $FFTY closed below the 50-day MA and $IWP is below the 20-day EMA, which crossed below the 50ma a few weeks ago.

$APPS is one of a handful of stocks that are holding up well and could be in play down the road if/when conditions improve.

There are no new setups for Wednesday. Patience is a must here as there isn’t much to do other than monitor the action.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• no setups

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