The Wagner Daily – $XLE Stock: Holding 50-day MA & Showing Strength

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$XLE daily

The Wagner Daily – May 4, 2022

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist

open positions:

$open positions

closed positions:

$closed positions

position notes:

  • No trades triggered.


Stocks failed to follow through on Monday’s bullish reversal action ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. There is still no buy signal in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq with both averages now on day 3 of a new rally attempt. Day 4 is the earliest we could see a follow-through day, which would be Thursday.

The S&P and Nasdaq futures have been trading in a very tight range on the hourly chart following Monday’s reversal, so whatever happens post-Fed should drive the market in the short term.

If the S&P 500 pushes higher, there is resistance from the 20ema around 4300 and 50ma around 4380.

$S&P 500 daily

The Nasdaq Composite has resistance from the 20ema just above 13,000 (r1) and the 50ma above 13,400 (r2).

$Nasdaq comp daily

Last week, $XLE closed below the 50-day MA and was in danger of potentially losing this average, which would have likely led to a deeper correction off the highs. $XLE may still be headed for more sideways action, but so far it’s holding the rising 50-day MA and remains leadership.  Note the bullish breakout in the relative strength line vs the S&P 500.  

$XLE daily

There are no new official setups ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. We would have no problem buying proper setups ahead of the Fed IF we were in a bull market.  Not something we want to do in a bear. 

Stocks that may be in play on strength over prior day’s high: $SPTN $CALM $PKG $DLTR $PING $GTLB $CEIX. Stocks in play on weakness: $CC $OLN $MOS $NTR

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

  •  Longs – see above
  •  Shorts – none

See you in the chat room,


This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

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