The Wagner Daily – $PCTY Holding 50-Day MA in Bear Market

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PCTY daily

The Wagner Daily – September 30, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

$todays watchlistAdd

position notes:

  • no trades triggered


On the daily chart, broad market averages and sector ETFs remain in a strong downtrend below the declining 8 and 20-day MAs.  

Nasdaq comp daily

With so many stocks and ETFs extended from the 20-day EMA, it’s tough to find low-risk short setups as the risk-to-reward ratios are not in our favor.

Energy ETF $XLE is one to watch on the short side if there is a bounce into resistance from the 200-day moving average, with the declining 20-day EMA just above.

XLE daily

$FSLR is a different kind of short setup that is only in play when a leading stock breaks down below the 20-day EMA…in an ugly market.

FSLR daily

$PCTY is trying to hold the 50-day MA this week as it continues to build a nice base in an ugly market. Just noting its strength here as this isn’t in play on the long side for us.

PCTY daily

Unofficial Setups –

  • Longs – none
  • Shorts – $FSLR  – below 2-day low using 20ema as stop. look to cover the same day if there is a big drop  

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