The Wagner Daily – $XLE ETF: A Bright Spot in Bear Market

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$XLE daily

The Wagner Daily – October 14, 2022

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

$todays watchlist 

position notes:

  • No trades triggered.


Stock market averages staged an impressive reversal, closing with gains of more than 2% after overcoming a big gap down on the open in response to higher-than-expected inflation data. 

The daily range of the Nasdaq Composite from low to high was nearly 6%, which can be attributed to a weak market that undercut a major swing low and was due for a bounce at some point. 

Just a reminder that some of the most spectacular one-day market swings occur during a bear market. 

While Thursday’s action is the first day of a fresh rally attempt, we still need to see additional proof of a bull, as well as a follow-through day on day four or later of a new rally attempt, to create a buy signal.

A follow-through day is defined as a 1.5% or more gain in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite on increased volume. If Thursday’s low holds, we might see a buy signal as early as next Tuesday.


The oil and banking sectors led Thursday’s charge. 

Energy ETF $XLE is one of the few areas that has avoided this bear market and is in decent shape technically,  so we may consider adding some exposure as setups emerge.

$XLE daily

On the other hand, financial ETF $XLF while basing out, remains in a downtrend and is currently rebounding after hitting a new 52-week low.

$xlf daily

Tech remains weak with both $XLK (technology sector ETF) and $SMH (semis) in an ugly downtrend

$XLK daily
$SMH daily

Due to the fact that we are still in a longer-term bear market, our short-term strategy is to remain in cash until a reliable buy signal is in place (as early as Tuesday).

Unofficial Setups –

  • Longs – none (waiting for a clear buy signal)
  • Shorts – none  

See you in the chat room,


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