The Wagner Daily – S&P 500: Holding on to Prior Low or New Low?

The Wagner Daily – May 9, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

The Nasdaq Composite is looking more like a breakout to the downside than a shakeout, as the price closed below support for the second Friday in a row. Any bounce will be viewed as a shorting opportunity.

The Nasdaq Composite daily:

The S&P 500 is still hanging on to the prior low. However, if last Friday’s low does not hold, then we will likely see a pick up in selling and a possible new low on the year.

If the S&P 500 can open above and hold last Friday’s close, then it may have a shot of reversing.

$AAPL closed below the 200-day MA for the second week in a row after another rejection at the 50-day MA. If the price takes out $150… could get ugly.

The model portfolio is long crude with last week’s buy in $USO. Note the price swings tightening up from left to right on the chart which is what we look for in quality basing patterns. Friday’s inside day is constructive action provided that the price holds above the rising 8-day EMA.

$MOS, $CF, $ADM, and $BG are a few leading stocks that are in a big spot near the 50-day MA. Can they hold?

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Longs – watching $CC $LNTH $MRK, $MOS, $ADM  
• Shorts – $JPM, $C, $WFC (entries below prior day’s low)

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

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