The Wagner Daily – $XLE ETF: 50-day MA Under Threat

The Wagner Daily – July 7, 2021

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MTG Market Timing Model – Buy 

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

•   Per intraday alert, bought $ZS.
•   $PYPL buy stop triggered for starter entry.

Commentary:

Money continues to flow into tech while the cyclical names struggle. $QQQ closed at +0.4% vs -0.2% in the S&P 500. 

Software ETF $IGV gained +1% and Russell Midcap Growth ETF $IWP closed at +0.3%.

Midcap growth in a strong uptrend.

Energy ETF $XLE is in danger of losing the 50-day MA.

$PYPL and $ZS were added to the model portfolio on Tuesday. $PYPL triggered its buy stop for a starter entry. The second buy stop is still live. We re-entered $ZS per intraday alert on a breakout above the handle high. Volume finished above average so we plan to add over Tuesday’s high.  See the new buy setup in the watchlist section above.

We originally entered $ZS around $200 at A, followed by a stop out at B ($213) below the 10-day EMA. We probably should have added back some shares at C, which was a break of the short-term downtrend line and two-day high. As mentioned above, we did buy the breakout above the handle high at D and plan to add over Tuesday’s high E.

There are two new setups for Wednesday’s session ($UPWK and $BILL) in addition to the adds in $ZS and $PYPL.

$UPWK is forming a handle above the 10 and 20-day EMAs and just below the base high. The base is a 45% deep and 20-week long cup with handle.

The buy stop entry is over the handle high.

IBD ratings – rs 97, eps 69, comp 96, accumulation/distribution B-, up/down volume ratio 1.1. Quarterly eps is not consistent but sales growth has been increasing the last three quarters at +24%, +32%, and +37%.

$BILL is forming a handle above the 10 and 20-day EMAs and just below the base high. The base is a 35% deep and 20-week long cup with handle pattern. We like the dry up in volume and downward slope of the handle along with Tuesday’s pick up in volume on the move up. The buy stop is over the handle high.

IBD ratings – rs 90, eps 40, comp 72, a/d rating A-, up/down volume ratio 1.2. Lacks earnings but last quarterly sales growth is solid with +45% last quarter.  

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• $SE – buy at 281.00
• $FIGS – buy at 46.76
• $VZIO – buy at 25.73
• $SI – buy at 108.00

Others to watch over prior day’s high – $PTON $MRNA $AFRM $SFIX $ETSY $TSP

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