The Wagner Daily – Low-Risk Entry: $ENPH and $CELH Eye 20-Day EMA

The Wagner Daily – August 29, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL (Nasdaq & SP-500 below the 20ema)  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

Add

position notes:

• Sold $PWR for a 6% gain.
• Sold half of $ON and $UNG to reduce risk.
• Sold all of $BMRN for a small loss to reduce risk.

Commentary:

Comments from Fed Chairman Powell led to a nasty beat down in the market last Friday. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 sliced through the 20-day EMA with losses of -3.7% and -3.4% respectively. As of this writing, US futures are down another 1% which could produce an open near the 50-day MA on the daily charts below.

Can these indices hold the 50-day MA and chop around, or is Friday’s plunge the start of another leg lower that leads to a test of prior lows?

Per intraday alerts, we reduced exposure Friday afternoon by selling $PWR (6% gain), $BMRN (small -1.5% loss), and half of $ON and $UNG (both at break-even). The idea was to reduce portfolio exposure by exiting positions that failed to make much progress.   This takes some pressure off the portfolio and allows us to hold on to stocks that have shown relative strength.  Although $ENPH and $CELH closed 3-4% lower on the day, both stocks are 2-3x more volatile than the S&P and could have easily taken a 6-8% hit. The same could be said of $ARRY and $WOLF.

Can $ENPH and $CELH hold the 20-day ema? For those not already long, a test of the 20-day ema in either stock could be a low-risk entry point.

There are no new official setups for Monday. As mentioned above, keep an eye on $ENPH and $CELH for pullback entries.

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• Longs – $CELH $ENPH $ARRY $WOLF – entries on pullbacks to the 20-day ema
• Shorts – none

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

These lists are a good starting point for monitoring the market’s health for those with limited time.

https://morpheustrading.com/services/swing-trade-alerts

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