The Wagner Daily – September 14, 2022
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL (markets back below 20 & 50-day MAs
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:
- Per intraday alert, sold $WOLF at breakeven due to market conditions. If we had more of a profit buffer we would have held.
Stocks were crushed in reaction to higher-than-expected inflation numbers from Tuesday’s CPI report.
One day of selling erased nearly four days of gains with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite down -4.3% and -5.2% respectively. Both indices sliced through the 20 and 50-day moving averages, forcing the timing model back into sell mode.
Anything can happen, but the odds favor more downside in the short term.
A handful of growth stocks held up extremely well, which was a positive. However, if market conditions continue to weaken, these stocks will have a tough time just holding on to support. Not exactly the type of environment we want to have much exposure in.
Per intraday alert, we sold $WOLF just above break-even. We didn’t have enough of a profit buffer to hold in this type of market.
We remain long $ENPH with split stops to reduce risk. $ENPH showed a ton of relative strength holding above the 20ema and $300 level. Can it hold up through the end of the week?
$SWAV Daily –
The model portfolio was able to sidestep most of the damage, as we were only 13% invested coming into today’s session with two longs.
There are no new setups for Wednesday as our focus is on managing $ENPH.
A few stocks/ETFs that held up well: $SWAV $ENPH $JKS $LPLA $HOLI $WOLF
- Longs – $SWAV – pullback to 10-week ma
- Shorts – none
See you in the chat room,
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