The Wagner Daily – Long $ENPH with Split Stops: Can it Hold?

The Wagner Daily – September 14, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL (markets back below 20 & 50-day MAs   

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

Add

position notes:

• Per intraday alert, sold $WOLF at breakeven due to market conditions.  If we had more of a profit buffer we would have held.

Commentary:

Stocks were crushed in reaction to higher-than-expected inflation numbers from Tuesday’s CPI report.  

One day of selling erased nearly four days of gains with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite down -4.3% and -5.2% respectively.  Both indices sliced through the 20 and 50-day moving averages, forcing the timing model back into sell mode.

Anything can happen, but the odds favor more downside in the short term.  

A handful of growth stocks held up extremely well, which was a positive.  However, if market conditions continue to weaken, these stocks will have a tough time just holding on to support.  Not exactly the type of environment we want to have much exposure in.  

Per intraday alert, we sold $WOLF just above break-even.  We didn’t have enough of a profit buffer to hold in this type of market.  

We remain long $ENPH with split stops to reduce risk.  $ENPH showed a ton of relative strength holding above the 20ema and $300 level.  Can it hold up through the end of the week?

$SWAV Daily – 

The model portfolio was able to sidestep most of the damage, as we were only 13% invested coming into today’s session with two longs.   

There are no new setups for Wednesday as our focus is on managing $ENPH. 

 A few stocks/ETFs that held up well: $SWAV $ENPH $JKS $LPLA $HOLI $WOLF  

• Longs – $SWAV – pullback to 10-week ma
• Shorts – none

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

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