The Wagner Daily – $SWAV: Must-Own with Market Improve

The Wagner Daily – October 4, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

Add

position notes:

• no trades triggered

Commentary:

With Monday’s bullish reversal action, the S&P 500 is in “undercut and rally” mode – if Monday’s reversal low holds.  An undercut and a rally occurs when the price falls below an obvious low but returns above it within a few days.  

No undercut in the Nasdaq Composite, but a downtrend line break could lead to a test of the 20-day ema.

Monday was day one of a new rally attempt. Our timing model generates a buy signal in one of two ways: a follow-through day (1.5% gain on higher volume) or recapture of the 20-day ema, whichever comes first (in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Comp.)

Despite the weakness in the market, we are still monitoring roughly 20-30 stocks that have held up extremely well over the past few months.  

$PCTY continues to impress after Monday’s bullish reversal above the 50-day ma (blue line).   A move through Monday’s high could serve as an entry for a small 1/4 position with a stop beneath Monday’s low.  Watch for a potential false trigger if there is a morning gap up and look to enter on weakness.  This is not an official setup.  

$SWAV is still a must-own for us if/when market conditions improve. The price action reclaimed the 50-day MA last week and has held up so far. The downtrend line remains in control.

There are no new official setups for Tuesday’s session.  Additional stocks to monitor on the long side: $ENPH $CELH $LPLA $TTD $DV $WOLF $AGL $WSC  

Unofficial Setups –

• Longs – $PCTY
• Shorts –

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

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