The Wagner Daily – Why $WING Shouldn’t Miss Out on Tuesday’s Breakout Attempt

The Wagner Daily – November 1, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  BUY  (from 10/21/22 follow-through day buy signal)

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• Per intraday alerts, sold $PI due to false breakout.
• Sold $DVN for a 4% gain ahead of earnings after the close today.
• Raised stops in $SSO and $OXY ($OXY reports next week).

Commentary:

The Nasdaq Composite printed a tight-ranged inside day at support from the 8 and 20-day EMAs. A close below the 20-day EMA this week on a pick-up in volume would be a clear negative. Expect volatility to pick up Wednesday afternoon after the Fed releases its decision on rates at 2 pm EST.

Our timing model remains on a buy signal from the 10/21 follow-through day, which is a 1.5% gain in a major index with higher volume on day 4 or later of a new rally attempt.

Although there have been a few glimpses of strong price and volume action since the follow-through day, we have yet to see enough evidence to increase long exposure beyond 20-40%.  That could change quickly (for the bull or bear case), depending on how the market reacts to Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement at 2pm EST.

There are a handful of names we are monitoring that are potential leadership candidates.  

$ENPH, $PI, $GFS, $WING, and $SWAV are a few of the more obvious names out there that are trading near highs or have formed a valid basing pattern after a strong move off the lows.  None of the stocks below are trading near 52-week lows.  

$ENPH – two inside days in a row but tough to buy on strength over the 3-day high in this market.  

$PI – failed to follow through on the breakout attempt above the gap-up day high but could be in play for us on a pullback.

$WING – failed to follow through on a breakout attempt Monday but could be in play on weakness near support for those not already long.

$GFS – continues to find support at 50-day MA (reports 11/8)

Just a reminder, there are a ton of stocks on our watchlists reporting earnings within the next two weeks. Be sure to check for earnings before establishing new positions.

Unofficial Watchlist

• Longs – watching $GFS $MEDP $CELH $SWAV $WING $ENPH
• Shorts – (none)

Rick 

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