The Wagner Daily – November 1, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – BUY (from 10/21/22 follow-through day buy signal)
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:
- Per intraday alerts, sold $PI due to false breakout.
- Sold $DVN for a 4% gain ahead of earnings after the close today.
- Raised stops in $SSO and $OXY ($OXY reports next week).
The Nasdaq Composite printed a tight-ranged inside day at support from the 8 and 20-day EMAs. A close below the 20-day EMA this week on a pick-up in volume would be a clear negative. Expect volatility to pick up Wednesday afternoon after the Fed releases its decision on rates at 2 pm EST.
Our timing model remains on a buy signal from the 10/21 follow-through day, which is a 1.5% gain in a major index with higher volume on day 4 or later of a new rally attempt.
Although there have been a few glimpses of strong price and volume action since the follow-through day, we have yet to see enough evidence to increase long exposure beyond 20-40%. That could change quickly (for the bull or bear case), depending on how the market reacts to Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement at 2pm EST.
There are a handful of names we are monitoring that are potential leadership candidates.
$ENPH, $PI, $GFS, $WING, and $SWAV are a few of the more obvious names out there that are trading near highs or have formed a valid basing pattern after a strong move off the lows. None of the stocks below are trading near 52-week lows.
$ENPH – two inside days in a row but tough to buy on strength over the 3-day high in this market.
$PI – failed to follow through on the breakout attempt above the gap-up day high but could be in play for us on a pullback.
$WING – failed to follow through on a breakout attempt Monday but could be in play on weakness near support for those not already long.
$GFS – continues to find support at 50-day MA (reports 11/8)
Just a reminder, there are a ton of stocks on our watchlists reporting earnings within the next two weeks. Be sure to check for earnings before establishing new positions.
- Longs – watching $GFS $MEDP $CELH $SWAV $WING $ENPH
- Shorts – (none)
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