The Wagner Daily – $SMCI: Monitoring for Pullback, Not an Official Setup

The Wagner Daily – November 5, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  BUY  (from 10/21/22 follow-through day buy signal)

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are trading roughly 1/2 of 1% higher this morning, but still within last Friday’s range.  

Our timing model remains on a buy signal based on the price and volume action of the strongest broad-based index, which is the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is still trading above the follow-through day low and could reclaim the 20-day EMA.  However, last Wednesday’s wide-ranged candle that sliced through the 50 and 20-day MAs may be tough to overcome in the short term without more chop.  There is also resistance from the declining 50-day MA.

The Nasdaq Composite is on a sell signal after taking out the 20-day ema and low of the follow-through day.   There is resistance from the declining 20-day ema and lower low around 10,800.    

Energy has been the only true source of leadership the past few weeks and may be running into some resistance with $XLE approaching the prior high after an extended run off the lows with very little pause. 

Aside from energy, there has been some strength in the financial and healthcare sectors, especially with bigger cap names such as $AMGN, $GILD, and $BIIB.  $BIIB is one to watch for a pullback entry off the 20-day EMA (if it pulls back in). 

The model portfolio remains long a 1/4 position in $PI, which bounced off support of the 8-day EMA. 

$SMCI is another name we are monitoring for a pullback entry off the 8-day EMA. This is not an official setup. We will send out an intraday alert if any action is taken.

In last Friday’s report, we mentioned $ENPH as a possible buy if it can hold the 8-day EMA. Last Friday’s selling ruined that setup for the most part, but the price could still bounce back. Just watching the action for now.

We have a split market right now with the Nasdaq in trouble and the S&P 500 in danger of triggering a sell-signal…but still holding up.  Very tough market to operate in.  Keep position size small if taking on long exposure and be patient for lower-risk entries near support.  

Unofficial Watchlist

• Longs – $SLB  $PI $WING $SMCI (pullback 8ema)  $BIIB $TMDX (pullback 8ema)
• Shorts – (none)

Rick 

 

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