The Wagner Daily – Support Holds Until Proven Wrong

The Wagner Daily – December 15, 2021

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The Wagner Daily – December 15, 2021
Proven swing trading strategy, top ETF & stock picks, and market timing model…since 2002

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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

open positions:

closed positions:

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary:

The Nasdaq Composite followed through on Monday’s weakness with a -1.3% gap down that opened below the 50-day MA and filled a recent gap (from Dec. 7). In the short term, the Nasdaq is a bit extended from the 10 & 20-day EMAs and may be due for a  bounce. Wednesday is day 8 of a new rally attempt as the Nasdaq is still trading above the recent swing low. It is also a Fed day, so we could see a volatile afternoon session.

There is quite a bit of support on the weekly chart from the rising 20-period EMA and uptrend line around 15,000.  Generally speaking, it’s best to operate with the mindset that support will hold until we are proven wrong.

The S&P 500 closed below the 20-day EMA but is still above the rising 50-day MA which is catching up to the price. Tuesday’s selling also filled a recent gap. Overall, the current consolidation is constructive, especially if the chart sets a higher low around the 50-day MA.

There are no official setups heading into Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

The Nasdaq is a bit too extended from the 10 and 20-day EMAs to put on any shorts (risk-reward ratios are not favorable at current levels). There isn’t much to do on the long side either, other than a small-sized position in a leading stock or two reversing off a big weekly or monthly support level.

$NVDA reversed off the 50-day MA and $QCOM has held up really well. Both are worth monitoring.

Other charts showing strength: $MRVL $ANET  $EDR  $PSTG  $AA $MAS 

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

• none

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