The Wagner Daily – $RBLX: A Potential Short Setup on the Horizon

The Wagner Daily – December 16, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of Dec. 15) due to a break of 20ema in S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• Per intraday alert, sold the rest of $GFS at breakeven.

Commentary: 

Stocks followed through on Wednesday’s weakness with another day of ugly selling.   All major indices ended with losses ranging from -2% to -3.5%.

The S&P 500 and S&P 400 lost the 20-day EMA, forcing our timing model back on a sell signal.  The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 closed below the 50-day MA. 

We noted in yesterday’s report that we were unable to increase our long exposure due to a lack of power during the most recent market rally.  Because of this, were already holding a 96% cash position coming into Thursday, which helped us avoid any pain.  We did sell the remaining portion of $GFS at breakeven, per intraday alert.  

With the odds now favoring further weakness, the short side is back on the table if/when there is a bounce.  New long exposure is off the table unless broad-based averages can reclaim major support levels within the next day or two. 

$MOS and $RBLX are a few short setups we are monitoring.  

The setups below are not official. 

$MOS – a short-term bounce would be ideal to establish a short position.  

 $RBLX – a day or two of tight-ranged chop from here would create a short setup.

Unofficial Watchlist –  the setups listed here are not tracked

• Longs – (none)
• Shorts – on a bounce $CRWD $CRWD $ZS $NET $CRM $MRVL $RBLX $MOS

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

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