The Wagner Daily – $TMDX’s Impressive Relative Strength and Price Action

The Wagner Daily – December 29, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of Dec. 15) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

Just a reminder, US markets will be closed next Monday, January 2.  The Wagner Daily will not be published on Sunday night but will return Monday night (Jan. 2) for Tuesday’s session.  

After a few days of choppy trading, the selling resumed with all broad-based averages down -1% or more. 

The Nasdaq 100 is leading to the downside and set a new 52-week low on a closing basis. 

The S&P 500 closed below support at 3,800 but is still above the low of last Thursday’s reversal candle.  A break of that low would increase the odds of further selling with a possible test of the 200-week moving average around 3,665. 

There are no new setups heading into the last few days of the year. 

$LULU has formed a bear flag-like pattern following a steep drop from the highs. The price has been unable to bounce above the declining 8-day EMA and 200-day MA while it digests the recent selloff.

A break of the range low could spark the next wave of selling. Look for a quick gain and exit partial size into weakness.

This is not an official setup.

Along with $SMCI and $MEDP, $TMDX is another top stock on our watchlist.

Note its relative strength since the gap up with the price action setting a higher low above the rising 50-day MA in an ugly market. The relative strength line is also near the high.

No setup here, just monitoring the action for now.

We expect volume to be light during the last few days of the year. Our plan is to sit mostly in cash and see what the new year brings.

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – watching $TMDX $MEDP
• Shorts – $LULU

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

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