The Wagner Daily – Crude Oil at a Crossroads: Will Oil and Gas Stocks Lead the Way Up or Down?

The Wagner Daily – December 28, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of Dec. 15) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• $SMCI buy-limit order triggered.

Commentary: 

The S&P 500 has chopped around in a tight range following last Thursday’s reversal candle.  A break of 3,800 would put pressure on the reversal.  A break of the reversal candle low would suggest further weakness.

There are no new official setups for Wednesday. 

he model portfolio is long a small 1/3 position in $SMCI that triggered on Tuesday.  

In a better market, the daily chart of $MEDP would be an ideal setup for us on the long side based on a downtrend line break.

The third touch validated the trendline on Tuesday (all trendlines need at least 3 touches to be valid).  

Crude oil futures chart has run into resistance of its declining 10-week moving average. If price action reverses lower, then oil and gas stocks which continue to show leadership may have a tough time making much progress to the upside.

Solar ETF $TAN is also in trouble after Tuesday’s break of the 200-day MA. $ENPH broke its 50-day MA and $FSLR may soon follow.

$AAPL hit an obvious swing low on Tuesday and may soon be due for a bounce after a few weeks of selling. Best to wait for a bounce to establish a short entry.

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – $BOX $FOUR $MEDP
• Shorts – $BAC $NTR $AAPL (on a bounce)

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

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