The Wagner Daily – Understanding the Trend of $IJJ/$IWP Ratio Chart

The Wagner Daily – January 9, 2023

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MTG Market Timing Model –  Sell (as of 12/15/22) due to a break of 20ema in the S&P 500

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

 

position notes:

• No trades triggered.

Commentary: 

The market closed out last week’s trading on a positive note, with most broad market averages defending recent lows and reversing higher on a pick-up in volume.  

Let’s see if these indices can follow-through to the upside.  

S&P Midcap 400 closed above all major moving averages but will need to hold. 

The S&P 500 reclaimed its 20-day ema but is just below the 50-day ma.  Not pictured below is the Nasdaq 100, which reclaimed its 8-day ema but remains below a declining 20-day ema.    

Value stocks continue to outperform growth.

The two images below are weekly ratio charts. 

The first is of $IJJ (midcap value) divided by $IWP (midcap growth).  In the tradingview charting platform, the symbol is IJJ/IWP.   The first symbol is value and if it is leading it will be in an uptrend.  If value is lagging, it will trend lower.   

Midcap value is outperforming.  

As is small cap value.

With the broad-based averages reversing higher last Friday, we are leaning towards the market pushing higher this week.

Based on the charts above and our weekend scans, value, biotech, and a few semiconductors are in play.  

There is one new official setup for Monday in $UTHR.  The entry is based on last week’s touch of the rising 10-week moving average which is labeled on the daily chart below.  We have a buy stop to enter near Friday’s close, basically trying to establish a position as close to the 10-week MA as possible. 

Other stocks potentially in play on strength or weakness:

$FIVE $PEN $PCVX $TGLS $JD $SMCI $BIDU $DXCM $APO $RMBS $TEX $TITN $APO $MOD $NBIX

Unofficial Setups 

• Longs – see above
• Shorts –

 

Rick 

Click here to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets

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