Commentary:
As anticipated, stocks followed up Tuesday’s “churning” with a sharp pullback across the board yesterday. After opening substantially lower, the major indices valiantly attempted to rebound later in the morning, but fell to new intraday lows later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.7%, the S&P 500 3.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite 3.2%. The small-cap Russell 2000 tumbled 3.4%, enabling us to lock in a quick, overnight gain of 4.6 points (7.6%) on UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM), which we bought to hedge our long positions on January 6. The S&P Midcap 400 lost 3.3%. A modest bounce in the final minutes of trading enabled the main stock market indexes to finish above their worst levels of the day.
Total volume in the NYSE eased 8%, while volume in the Nasdaq decreased 6% below the previous day’s level. The lighter turnover in both exchanges enabled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to avert the label of a “distribution day.” However, remember that the prior day’s “churning” was already indicative of institutional selling into strength. Volume commonly decreases on losing days that follow concealed selling into strength near the highs.
In yesterday’s market analysis, we pointed out the buy setup in CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY). After correcting down to support of its 50-day moving average for the first time in five months, we planned to buy FXY on a rally above the January 6 high. That buy entry point occurred right on the market’s open, and FXY subsequently moved higher throughout the day. Our entry, target, and stop prices for this trade are annotated on the daily chart below:
After discussing the “churning” and dismal performance of leading stocks on January 6, we concluded yesterday’s commentary by saying, “Though we certainly don’t have enough confirmation to declare the end of the market’s seven-week rally, a substantial pullback to at least the 50-day MAs is quite realistic.” Since yesterday’s 3% drop in the S&P 500 caused the index to close within 2% (18 points) of its 50-day MA, it appears our projected correction is under way. On the daily chart of the S&P 500, we’ve highlighted this important area of key price support for the current pullback:
Obviously, there’s no guarantee yesterday’s selling was just an orderly pullback that will soon be followed by another wave of buying, and a rally back up to the recent highs. After all, every other rally over the past six months has only led to new lows. Still, it doesn’t appear the broad market is ready to re-test its 52-week lows just yet. The simple fact that the S&P 500 is currently pulling back to support of its 50-day MA, rather than rallying into resistance of its 50-day MA makes a big difference in overall market sentiment. This is because mutual funds, hedge funds, and other market-moving institutions frequently use the 50-day moving averages as a gauge of overall market trend, and hence the aggressiveness of their buying operations.
It’s quite possible the stock market will eventually fall to new lows sometime in 2009; however, considering the extent of last year’s losses, the current intermediate-term rally could easily continue much higher before the bears resume control again. Remember to follow the price of the iShares 20+ year T-Bond (TLT) as an inversely correlated leading indicator of money flow into the overall equities markets. Monitoring the performance of leading individual stocks also tells us a lot about the health of the market’s intermediate-term rally that’s still alive and well.
Today’s Watchlist:
There are no new ETF trade setups in the pre-market today. Claymore Global Solar Energy (TAN) remains on our watchlist for potential pullback entry, but we first want to assess overall market action today. If we enter anything TAN, or anything else, we will promptly send an Intraday Trade Alert with details.
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices.
FXI long (200 shares from Dec. 5 entry) –
bought 27.18, stop 28.70 (see note below), target 34.10, unrealized points = + 2.33, unrealized P/L = + $466 (see note below)
SLV long (800 shares total; 600 from Dec. 26 entry, 200 from Jan. 6 entry) –
bought 10.64 (avg.), stop 10.22, target 13.45, unrealized points = + 0.22, unrealized P/L = + $176
FXY long (200 shares from Jan. 7 entry) –
bought 107.10, stop 103.82, target 113.80, unrealized points = + 0.52, unrealized P/L = + $104
USO long (150 shares from Jan. 2 entry) –
bought 34.13, stop 31.30, no target (will trail stop), unrealized points = (0.86), unrealized P/L = ($129)
GDX long (150 shares from Dec. 26 entry) –
bought 31.40, stop 26.68, no target (will trail stop), unrealized points = (1.35), unrealized P/L = ($203)
Closed positions (since last report):
Current equity exposure ($100,000 max. buying power):
Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader
market timing model: BUY Signal generated on close of Sept. 21 Market timing model is…
market timing model: BUY Signal generated on close of Sept. 21 On a buy signal.…
market timing model: BUY Signal generated on close of Sept. 21 On a buy signal.…
market timing model: BUY Signal generated on close of Sept. 21 On a buy signal.…
market timing model: BUY Signal generated on close of Sept. 21 On a buy signal.…
market timing model: BUY Signal generated on close of Sept. 21 On a buy signal.…