The Wagner Daily – February 15, 2022
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
- No trades triggered.
If Monday’s lows in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hold, then we may see a short-term bounce into resistance this week.
There are two new official buy setups for Tuesday looking to play stocks that are showing strength.
$DLTR reclaimed the 50-day MA last week and is now in pullback mode. Monday’s reversal candle is a buy signal, with the entry over Monday’s high. The stop is below the reversal candle low.
- Only 8% off the 52-week high with a group rank of 53 of 197 groups
- 12-month RS 93, 3-month RS 85
- Not shown is the relative strength line which is almost to new highs ahead of price.
$CNQ is tightening up on the daily chart during a 4-week consolidation near the 52-week high. $CNQ is a leading stock within the sector after an explosive breakout from its last base. Monday’s inside day is our buy signal with an entry over the two-day high. The stop is a bit loose for now below the 20-day EMA and swing low at $50.
- Only 3% off the high with a group rank of 1 out of 197
- 12-month RS 98, 3-month RS 97
- Relative strength line set a new high ahead of price (bullish sign)
Should the market selloff, $NET $CRWD $DOCN $TWTR are a few potential short setups that could be in play on weakness (break of Monday’s low).
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – watching $BCRX $CMC
- Shorts – $NET $CRWD $DOCN $TWTR $SHOP (below Monday’s lows)
See you in the chat room,
For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active. However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go. If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions. If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade. For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
- Longs – watching $BCRX $AOSL $CMC
- Shorts – $NET $CRWD $DOCN $TWTR $SHOP
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