The Wagner Daily – March 17, 2021
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market timing model: S&P 500 BUY, No FTD day in Nasdaq Composite yet, but price is above 20ema
Our timing model was designed to keep trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
open positions:
closed positions:
position notes:
- Note the change to the $NCTY buy setup.
Commentary:
The Nasdaq Composite stalled at the prior swing high and sold off, but is still trading above the 10 & 20-day EMAs and the 50-day MA. Overall, we like the current rally in the S&P 500, but the Nasdaq has yet to produce a follow through day.
Tuesday’s session was a busy one for the model portfolio. Most stocks pulled back in with the exception of $JWN, which held up extremely well. Per intraday alert, we sold partial size in $JWN for a 16% gain and now hold a half position. Our plan is to use a break of the 10-day EMA as the stop on the rest.
Per intraday alerts, stopped out of $CCL at break-even and sold $SI for a small 4% gain and $SQ for a -1% loss. $MARA was also sold for a small 3% loss on just a 3% position. $W hit our stop and we are out.
There isn’t much progress being made in the portfolio as of late, but the remaining half position in $JWN could continue to run while we wait for conditions to improve.
While we saw no reason to stick around in $CCL or $MARA and sold ahead of the stops, doing so in $SQ and $SI was a mistake.
On today’s watchlist we have a buy limit order to re-enter $SQ, as Tuesday’s close was near the original entry.
Although the higher volume distribution day in $SI wasn’t ideal, the price was still trading above the 5 and 10-day MAs when we sold. The low of Monday’s wide ranged day should have been the stop.
Will wait for $SI to setup again before entering.
$TWTR pulled back to the rising 10-day EMA on lighter volume Tuesday.
We like the pull back into support and look for the rising 20ema to provide support. We are trying to enter near Tuesday’s close with a buy limit order. Stop is the three-day low.
For those who did not stop out of $SQ or $SI, continue to hold with stops at $138.55 ($SI) and $228.95 ($SQ).
$NCTY is still very much in play if it can clear the highs of the tight range.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- $PENN – see how it acts tomorrow morning, if it holds 10ema or reverses off a test of 20ema.
- $W – buy at 331.51
- $RIOT and $MARA – see how it holds up vs 10ema, watch for an hourly downtrend line break
- $TDC – buy at 45.51
- $ABNB – watch for pullback entry to develop in the 195 area near 20-day EMA
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