The Wagner Daily – April 18, 2022
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MTG Market Timing Model – Sell
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- Per intraday alert, bought $COP.
Note – As of this writing, the Nasdaq futures are down -1% and S&P 500 futures -0.7%.
Friday’s selling erased all the bullish engulfing action on Thursday and suggests further weakness in the short-term.
Unless the price action can reverse higher Monday morning, it looks as though a test of the uptrend line (at the very least) is next for the S&P 500.
The Nasdaq Composite also gave back the prior day’s advance.
Can the financials ($XLF) hold support around $36.60?
Per intraday alert, we bought $COP last Friday looking for some oil exposure on a breakout above the three-day high. The breakout failed to follow through and sold off with the market. Let’s see if the price can bounce back this week.
The weekly chart has bounced off support of the 10-week MA and uptrend line.
The short side of the market is in play but maybe a bit tricky to enter depending on how much of a gap down we see Monday morning. The setups below are not official but should be monitored for an entry.
$PENN is shortable after a weak bounce into the declining 8-day EMA following a breakdown beneath an obvious low. The entry is on a break of Friday’s tight-ranged session low with a stop above the high of the same day. If the price gaps down significantly, then it may be best to pass on the setup or wait for a bounce near Friday’s low to enter.
$LEN is another bounce into the declining 8-day EMA after a breakdown below an obvious support level. The entry is below Friday’s low with a stop above the high of the same day. Avoid the setup if there is a significant gap.
As for longs, if Monday’s action turns bullish then $TSLA is one to watch for a partial sized entry over last Friday’s high … if the price can hold the 20-day EMA. Not an official entry.
$OXY and $OAS are a few more energy stocks that could be in play this week. $OXY is not an official setup since we bought $COP last Friday but could be in play over Friday’s high.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- Longs – $OXY >60.60, $PFE >54.00
- Shorts – entries below Friday’s low – $UBER, $XPEV, $FUTU, $BLDR (avoid if too big of gap)
See you in the chat room,
Rick
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
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