The Wagner Daily – April 26, 2021
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market timing model: Buy (in S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite)
Our timing model was designed to keep trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- Per intraday alert, bought $HUBS.
The Nasdaq Composite is in pretty good shape after finding support at the rising 20-day EMA last week and is now forming the handle portion of a cup with handle pattern on the daily chart below.
The price and volume action in growth stocks improved late last week, which is a positive sign for our style of trading. Let’s see if $HUBS, $NVDA, $CRWD, and $NET can continue higher without giving back much ground by staying above a rising 10ema.
Per intraday alert, we bought a half position in $HUBS on a breakout over the handle high.
There is one new official setup for Monday’s session in $NVDA, where we have a buy stop above last Thursday’s high. If the price fails to hold the 10ema, then we will monitor for a reversal candle entry off the 20ema.
$TSLA is forming a legit handle above the 50-day MA but reports earnings on 4/26. Ideally, we’d love to see a post-earnings gap up above $780 to generate a buy signal.
$SNAP held the 50-day MA after reporting earnings and could be in play for within the next week or two. A test of the 50-day MA this week could be a low-risk spot for a small position. This is not an official setup.
$IR reports earnings on 4/28. Note the new stop in place to exit if the price breaks the 8-day EMA, which would result in a small loss. We would need a buffer of at least 5% to hold through the report.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- $SNAP – buy pullback to 60.00
- $SQ – buy at 250.00
- $SE – buy at 262.00 (look for volume to pick up)
- $ETSY – buy at 217.75 (volume should pick up)
- $NET – buy pullback to 80.50, stop break of 8-day EMA
- $LPRO – buy at 38.15 (reclaim 50ma)
- $FND – but at 114.75
See you in the Live Trading Room
Rick
For those new to this report, our share size is pretty conservative with max. size around 10% of equity per trade. We do this because we prefer to trade 10-12 names to keep the report active. However, if your goal is to maximize returns, taking 18-25% positions is the way to go. If trading in a non-margin account, this will limit the portfolio to 4-5 positions. If on margin, then 8-10 positions. Our risk per trade on average is just over 1/2 of 1%. Experienced traders may want to risk 1% to 2% per trade. For example, a 20% position in a 100k account with a 6% stop loss would result in a $1,200 loss (1.2%).
Click on the link below to view this week’s watchlist in google sheets.
This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.
DISCLAIMER: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a high degree of risk for substantial losses in trading securities. All data and material on this website and/or electronically delivered to individuals is for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. By using the content on this document, user understands and agrees to full terms of this disclaimer.
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