The Wagner Daily – Oil Stocks Lead: Buy $KOS above Tue’s High

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$kos daily

The Wagner Daily – May 25, 2022

Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist

open positions:

$open positions

closed positions:

$closed positions

position notes:

  • Canceled the $TNA buy stop. 


Just a reminder that we have been mostly in cash since the market began selling off and have lost a minimal amount of money while broad-based averages are down 20-30%!   When the next bull arrives, we won’t have to dig ourselves out of a big hole to be profitable.  We have also preserved our mental capital,  which is very important.  Many are trying to catch bottoms every week and eventually become mentally exhausted (and chopped up), which eventually leads to giving up on the market right around the time it bottoms out. 

Bulls showed some fight for the second time in three sessions with a decent recovery off the lows of the day in broad-based averages. On a closing basis, the S&P 500 is digging in around 3,900. There are several closes in the $287-290 area in $QQQ.

Both charts below have the potential to set a higher low with a move through Monday’s high, which could spark a short-term bounce.

$SP 500 daily
$NASDAQ daily

Leadership remains the same with oil stocks on top. Oil-based ETFs $XOP and $GUSH are potentially in play for a pop above the two-day high.

Oil stock $KOS is buyable above the high of Tuesday’s inside day, which is also above the downtrend line.

$kos daily

Fertilizer stocks such as $CF, $NTR, and $MOS are in base-building mode. $CF is potentially in play based on Tuesday’s tight-ranged inside day near the 50-day ma. The buy entry is over the two-day high.

$CF daily

There are no new official setups for Wednesday. Our nightly short scans dried up, so there isn’t much to do on the short side from a low-risk standpoint. Any unofficial long setups taken should be played for a pop, as there isn’t enough reward for the risk of holding beyond the initial push up.

Overall, we remain in a bear market with the odds favoring more downside until proven otherwise.

For those who are new to the service, our system is based on trading growth stocks that can explode higher in a short period of time…when conditions are ideal. For most of 2022, conditions have not been ideal, so we have been playing the short side when setups are there while waiting for a new buy signal. Below are a few things we are looking for in a buy signal.

Keys to market turning bullish:

  • Buy signal in the timing model, such as a FTD (follow through day) or reclaim of 21-day EMA
  • Stocks begin to breakout on volume and hold… indexes hold the 21-day EMA
  • Number of stocks making new 52-week highs vs 52-week lows enters into positive territory
  • After the first wave of breakouts, new setups emerge

Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.

  •  Longs – $KOS $CF (see above) $LNTH (watching)
  •  Shorts – $DKNG (below yest low)

See you in the chat room,


This list is a good starting point for monitoring the health of the market for those who have limited time.

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