The Wagner Daily – $PCTY Holding 50-Day MA in Bear Market

The Wagner Daily – September 30, 2022

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MTG Market Timing Model –  SELL  

Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

today’s watchlist along with open and closed positions:

Add

position notes:

• no trades triggered

Commentary:

On the daily chart, broad market averages and sector ETFs remain in a strong downtrend below the declining 8 and 20-day MAs.  

With so many stocks and ETFs extended from the 20-day EMA, it’s tough to find low-risk short setups as the risk-to-reward ratios are not in our favor.

Energy ETF $XLE is one to watch on the short side if there is a bounce into resistance from the 200-day moving average, with the declining 20-day EMA just above.

$FSLR is a different kind of short setup that is only in play when a leading stock breaks down below the 20-day EMA…in an ugly market.

$PCTY is trying to hold the 50-day MA this week as it continues to build a nice base in an ugly market. Just noting its strength here as this isn’t in play on the long side for us.

Unofficial Setups –

• Longs – none
• Shorts – $FSLR  – below 2-day low using 20ema as stop. look to cover the same day if there is a big drop

See you in the chat room,

Rick 

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