The Wagner Daily – December 21, 2021
Below is the full, archived issue of The Wagner Daily swing trading report (sent to members the night before the publication date).
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MTG Market Timing Model – SELL
Our timing model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend, not to call tops or catch bottoms in S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
closed positions:
position notes:
- No trades triggered.
Holiday Schedule – US markets will be closed on Friday, December 24. An abbreviated version of The Wagner Daily will be published on Wednesday night for Thursday’s session. No report for Thursday night, but we are back to work on Sunday night.
Happy Holidays!
The Nasdaq Composite reversed from an undercut of an obvious swing low and closed well off the lows of the session. The bullish reversal could spark a short-term bounce with a ton of resistance in the 15,300 to 15,600 area.
Since the Nasdaq set a new low, the follow-through day count resets with Monday’s reversal now day one of a new rally attempt. A follow-through day can occur on day 4 or later of a rally (it’s possible on day 3 but all 3 days must be explosive).
The S&P 500 closed off the lows of the session but sliced through the 50-day MA. Overall, the daily chart remains the same….one big range. Let’s see if the price can clear Monday’s high and hold. If not, then a test/undercut of the December low could be in play.
In our last report, we discussed $AAPL potentially finding support at the 20-day EMA which played out on Monday. A bounce off the 20-day EMA could help lift $QQQ higher this week.
$MRVL closed with an inside day between the 10 and 20-day EMAs. Under better conditions, this is the type of low-risk entry we would take.
$CIEN’s bull flag action at the highs is impressive. Note the RS line moving to new highs ahead of price, a bullish sign. Tough to get long here with no evidence of a bottom in place.
Although the market could bounce in the short term, we have no plans to go long until there is more evidence of a market bottom in place.
It’s tough to sit back and do nothing, but going long in this environment doesn’t carry much of an edge. Short setups may be in play later this week or next if the averages bounce.
Unofficial Setups – For experienced traders only, no guidance is given for these setups.
- none
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