Commentary:
Stocks were hit hard on Tuesday on a significant uptick in trade. At the opening bell the market gapped down sharply. It found some footing in the early afternoon but eventually sank into the close to end the day near session lows. All five major indices closed more than two percent lower. For the second time in as many days the plunge was led by higher beta issues. By the closing bell the small-cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq had lost 3.7%, 3.3% and 2.9% respectively. The S&P 500 dropped 2.8% while the Dow Jones Indusrtial Average slid 2.5%. The session was a very difficult one for Wall Street.
Market internals were decidedly bearish as both volume and declining volume skyrocketed. Trade on the Nasdaq spiked by just over 30.0% while on the NYSE volume jumped by 31.9%. Declining volume outpaced advancing volume by a wide margin on both exchanges. By the closing bell the advancing volume to declining volume ratio stood at a negative 15.9 to 1 on the NYSE and negative 9.9 to 1 on the NYSE. The spike in volume points to institutional distribution on both exchanges. Yesterday would also qualify as a follow through day for the NYSE.
Last week we exited a long position in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) prior to reaching the projected target. It turns out that we were able to close this position within ten cents of its most recent swing high. Our reasoning for exiting the trade early included the fact that the broad market was showing signs of being over bought, SLV had filled the gap created on September 23rd, we were approaching major resistance at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and SLV was beginning to show signs of losing momentum following a significant three day move. Further, we didn’t like the risk/reward associated with trying to squeeze an additional 50-80 cents out of the trade with the potential of sliding back to the 20-day EMA. Finally, the market has lacked follow through recently and to stay in the trade would have been expecting a lot from the market. Combined, these reasons added up to one logical conclusion…take profits.
The iShares Japan MSCI Index ETF (EWJ) is quickly approaching a major support level first established almost a year ago. A move below the 12 month low of $9.15 could provide a short entry trigger for EWJ. We are watching this setup carefully for a potential entry should the broad market conditions deteriorate because EWJ is showing significant relative weakness.
Despite the fact that today was a distribution day our bullish stance on the market remains intact. However, the NYSE has now recorded a third distribution day and the Nasdaq a second distribution day since providing buy signals last week. This has made for a very difficult trading environment and appears suited mainly for day trading and one day swing trades. Consequently, it is very easy to overtrade and get chopped up in this environment because the volatility requires almost perfect market timing. Sometimes is just better to be mainly on the sidelines.
Today’s Watchlist:
There are no new setups for today. As always, we will send an intraday alert if any new trades are made.
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
- No trades were made.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader