Bearish But Not Bearish Enough? (IYT)


Stocks lost ground on Thursday amidst higher volume. All five major indices ended in the red. The small-cap Russell 2000 withstood the most damage as it fell 2.0%. The S&P MidCap 400 lost 1.3% while both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 shed just over 1.0%. The Nasdaq showed the most resiliency as it contained losses at 0.8%.

Market internals were modestly bearish on Thursday. Volume rose by 10.2% on the Nasdaq but was only fractionally higher on the NYSE. However, declining volume was proportionally higher on the NYSE versus the Nasdaq. By the closing bell the spread ratio stood at 5.7 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.5 to 1 on the Nasdaq in favor of declining volume. Yesterday’s internals suggest a distribution day on the Nasdaq. The picture is a little less clear on the NYSE because of the lighter volume on this index.

Over the past three sessions the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index ETF has shown relative weakness to the broad market. As the S&P 500 has rallied to overcut its 20-day EMA, IYT has remained below this level. Yesterday, IYT formed a reversal candle as it turned lower just prior to touching its 20-day EMA. A move below the two day low of $80.23 could present a short entry trigger for this ETF. We are following IYT carefully for a potential short entry.

Yesterday, the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETF (DTO) tested support of the September 1st swing low but reversed at this level and rallied to close near session highs. A move above yesterday’s high of $60.31 could present a long entry trigger for this ETF. Alternatively, a move above the two day high of $61.86 also provides a possible long entry point for DTO. When a setup like this presents itself we will often take a half position at the first trigger and add to that position above the second trigger.

Despite the bearish action on Thursday we are hesitant to make a call for a wholesale selloff today. Although volume was higher on the Nasdaq it remained about the same on the NYSE as compared to Wednesday’s level. Further, declining volume did not overwhelm advancing volume on the Nasdaq and the total volume on both indices fell well below the 50-day volume moving average. Normally we like to see reversal days accompanied by volume that is at or above the 50-day volume moving average. The lighter the volume, the weaker the signal and the more cautious we are with respect to taking on new trades.

Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new official setups today. As always, we will send an Intraday Alert if any new trades are made.

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

    position summary

    Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above?
    Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.


  • EUO buy setup triggered after the first five minutes of trading. Please note the change in the EUO target price.
  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
  • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.

    Have you had your free 1-month trial to Morpheus Trading Group’s additional ETF and stock trading newsletters?

      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader