ETFs and market commentary:
Stocks ended the session mixed on Friday as volume quickened. Bigger cap issues showed strength as high beta issues struggled. By the closing bell the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 posted gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. The S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 both slid 01.%, while the Nasdaq demonstrated the most weakness as it fell 0.3% on the day. Sectors showing strength included, retail, banking defense. The biotech sector got blistered on Friday, as it sank almost 4.0%. Other losers included non ferrous metals, gold miners, coal miners, airlines and steel.
Market internals ended the day mixed. Volume increased on the Nasdaq by 1.5% and on the NYSE by 11.3%. Declining volume outpaced advancing volume on the Nasdaq by a factor of 1.2 to 1, but on the NYSE advancing volume held the upper hand as it upped declining volume by 1.2 to 1. The Nasdaq experienced its first distribution day in quite some time, as both total volume and declining volume were higher on the technology rich index. However, the NYSE escaped a distribution day due to its mixed internals.
The iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index ETF (IYR) has been in pullback mode since setting a swing high on February 3, 2011. A move above Friday’s high of $61.43 could provide a possible buy entry trigger for this ETF.
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) has recently broken out from an 8 month base above its 200-day MA. Currently, XOP does not offer a reasonable entry due to how far it is extended above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. However, on a pullback XOP could offer a possible buy entry. An undercut of the 10-day and/or 20-day moving average(s), followed by a reversal candle would present an ideal long setup for this ETF.
Our open positions put in a mixed performance on Friday. DVY held relative strength while both XLU and SOXL closed near session lows. For the moment however, none of the positions are in danger of stopping out and as long as we avoid a series of distribution days, all of these positions appear ready to move higher. Friday marked the first distribution day in the Nasdaq in nearly a month.
Today’s ETF Watchlist:
Note: The old watchlist is replaced by the excel graphic below:
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner DailySubscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.
Notes:
- Note the change to the IAU setup, which is now just one entry for the full 800 shares.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
Late last week we saw a dry up in the number of bullish setups for the first time in several weeks. Our weekend scans showed little improvement, but we are monitoring a few setups for potential entry points: CELG, EXAS, MDCO, SURG, CONN, TDG, and HXL.
CONN is pulling back in orderly fashion on declining volume:
The lack of follow through in trades over the past two weeks is a concern. STAA, BIIB, TSCO, MNST, and JAZZ were all solid setups that failed to impress. We plan to lay low for the next few days or until quality buy setups emerge.
Today’sStock Watchlist:
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below.
Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.
Notes:
- BWLD buy entry triggered off the watchlist.
- Sold OPK five minutes after the open for a small loss.
- Per intraday alert:
- Sold IACI to lock in gains due to the lack of follow through in our positions as of late.
- Sold TSCO for a small loss due to the lack of follow through.
- Raised the stop in JAZZ just in time, as the price action fell apart intraday stopping us out with a smaller than average loss.
Relative Strength Watchlist:
The Relative Strength (or RS) Watchlist makes it easy for subscribers to import data into their own scanning software, such as Tradestation, Interactive Brokers, and TC2000. The list is comprised of the strongest 100 (or so) stocks in the market over the past six to 12 months. The scan is based on the following criteria and is updated every Monday:
- Stock is in a well defined uptrend, trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average (both moving averages should be in an uptrend as well).
- Today’s close is less than 20% off the 52-week high
- Close is greater than $5.
- Volume is greater than 200,000 shares per day (using a 50-day volume moving average).
Click here to view this week’s Relative Strength Watchlist in excel
Click here to view this week’s Relative Strength Watchlist as a text file