Current signal generated on close of November 13.
Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 75 to 100% long. If positions are holding up well, then one can add exposure beyond 100% (for experienced traders only).
Past signals:
- Neutral signal generated on close of November 6.
- Buy signal generated on close of September 9
- Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
- Buy signal generated on close of July 11
- Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
- Sell signal generated on close of June 24
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
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Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.
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closed positions:
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ETF position notes:
- Removed $EWJ from watchlist. Note the changes listed above. Stopped out of $TBT.
stock position notes:
- Stopped out of $WUNA for a small, scratch gain.
ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:
Note to new subscribers:
If you have recently signed up for our newsletter, then you will notice that there are quite a few open positions, with many of them in the money. The best way to approach establishing long exposure is to simply start small and build on success.
For example, if you have room for a maximum of 8 stocks/ETFs in your portfolio, it is best to establish 2-3 new positions (20-40% of portfolio value). If these positions move in the money fairly quickly, then you can add a few more.
One should never dive right into the market by establishing full exposure in just a few days. This is more along the lines of operating out of fear of missing a move, and one should never operate out of fear in the market. Take it slow and build on success!
Stocks sold off sharply through the morning and early afternoon, with most major averages down 1.0% or more by 2 pm. However, a late afternoon rally allowed saved the day, as stocks bounced well off the lows of the session and closed in the middle to upper third of the day’s range.
With all major averages closing in the -0.6% to -1.1% range on higher volume, it was a certainly a distribution day in the market. That being said, the late rally prevented the distribution from being clear cut and ugly, as buyers were willing to step in on weakness.
Yesterday’s action looks fine on the charts of $IWM, $QQQ, and $MDY. However, if Thursday’s lows are violated on Friday, then we could see a short-term pullback develop.
While the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) is technically a bit weaker than the ETFs mentioned above, it still has quite a bit of support around the $181 – $182 level, which is detailed on the chart below:
Point A offers support from prior swing highs in December. Point B is the last swing low on January 13, and point C is the rising 50-day MA.
We continue to monitor Guggenheim Solar ETF ($TAN) for an entry point. Since the action failed to hold at the rising 10-day MA, $TAN might be in the process of forming a handle. A handle is a short-term consolidation that is usually less that 10% in width and at least five days in length. A good handle will usually slope lower and shake out some of the weaker hands.
We look for $TAN to touch or possibly undercut the 20-day EMA over the next few days. If the price action holds up at the 20-day EMA and market conditions remains strong, then $TAN should resume its uptrend in a short order.
We stopped out of $TBT yesterday as the price action failed to hold the 200-day MA. Our long position in $DZZ is also close to stopping out, as the action failed to hold at the 50-day MA. $PGJ put in a decent reversal off the lows of the day, but must continue to hold the 50-day MA next week.
On the stock side, we stopped out of $WUBA for a small gain. We have two new setups on today’s watchlist. The first is in $SSTK, which is a buy entry over yesterday’s high, as we look to add back the shares we stopped out of on 1/10.
The second setup is in $P, which has pulled back on light volume after a big volume breakout. Yesterday’s reversal makes for a clean GONG setup (go or no go). If this setup triggers the price action should move out right away. The stop is fairly tight, as Thursday’s low should not be violated.
Other strong setups that are not officially listed are (these setups are for experienced traders only).
- $MEI – entry 34.70 or entry 35.60, stop 33.49 or 32.49
- $JKS – entry 34.80, stop 34.30
- $JKS – entry 34.80, stop 34.30
- CAAS – entry 8.47 or 8.75, stop 7.80
- ARCW – entry 27.85 or 28.25, stop 24.95
Please check for earnings before playing any unofficial setups.