Commentary:
Equities faded on Friday on mixed trade. Yesterday’s price action pulled all five major indices into negative territory but all five closed well off session lows. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.8%, as the S&P MidCap 400 lost 0.6%. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 shed 0.5%. The Dow showed the most relative strength as it fell by only 0.4%.
Market internals ended the session mixed. Volume was marginally lower on the Nasdaq but ended 3.7% higher on the NYSE. Declining volume outshined advancing volume by a ratio of 2.9 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Despite the fact that internals painted a moderately negative picture of the market, the fact that all of the major averages recovered from session lows and formed distinct reversal candles, actually tips the scale in favor of market bulls. However, it was by no means an accumulation day on either index, given the mixed internals.
The semiconductor sector has shown relative strength recently, as it has been one of the top ten sectors we follow. However, on Friday this sector showed relative weakness as it closed near session lows. The strongest ETF in the semiconductor space has been the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF. Nonetheless, it too on Friday, sold off to close near session lows. SMH could offer a buying opportunity into a pullback at the its 200-day, 50-day and 20-day moving averages. We will be following SMH closely for a possible buy entry.
Over the past four sessions, the iShares Dow Jones Real Estate Index Trust (IYR) has undercut but held support of its 200-day MA. Yesterday, IYR saw its deepest undercut of this key mark but reversed to close near session highs. A volume charged move above the four day high of $57.89 could provide a long entry trigger for IYR. We are placing IYR on the watchlist. Our members can find trade details for this setup in the watchlist section of the newsletter.
Current watchlist candidates IXN and XRT both continue to set up nicely. IXN appears to be setting up better than XRT, as it has been coiling in a very tight trading range since gapping up on January 3rd. It has traded in a one dollar and twenty cent range for ten days now. This tightening price action is encouraging. The one flaw in the IXN setup is the bearish divergence between the accumulation-distribution line and the price action over the past several months. However things can change quickly with respect to the Acc-Dist line.
Although Friday’s market action appeared bearish, all five major indices closed near their respective intraday highs and new leadership stocks continue to emerge. We are seeing the price confirmation among small-cap leadership stocks, as they broke to new highs on Friday despite the negative price action. Further, buyers have continued to hold up the bid on virtually every pullback recently. Our bullish conviction remains intact.
Today’s Watchlist:
IYR
Long
Shares = 300
Trigger = 57.97
Stop = 56.47
Target = 61.20
Dividend Date = n/a
Notes = see commentary above
IXN
Long
Shares = 400
Trigger = 60.48
Stop = 59.29
Target = 62.40
Dividend Date = n/a
Notes = see commentary Jan. 13
XRT
Long
Shares = 250
Trigger = 53.21
Stop = 51.17
Target = 55.50 – 56.00 area (will send alert)
Dividend Date = n/a
Notes = see commentary from Jan. 9
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
- Added IYR to the watchlist.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader