--> Divergence amongst the major indices ($SPX, $COMPX, $DJI)

Divergence amongst the major indices ($SPX, $COMPX, $DJI)


Commentary:

Thursday’s session, the conclusion to the first quarter of 2011, ended with mixed results and in uneventful fashion. Throughout the session, stocks merely meandered in a tight range. For the second straight session, the small-cap Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 led all other indices, showing relative strength by moving higher by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was unchanged, but both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 edged slightly lower. The Dow declined 0.3%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.2% on Thursday.

Total market volume was modestly higher on Thursday, and declining volume was greater than advancing volume on both indices. Turnover rose by 5.6% on the NYSE and 3.5% on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500’s loss on higher volume technically caused the index to register a bearish “distribution day,” indicative of institutional selling. However, given the modest degree of the loss, as well as the divergent strength in small and mid-caps, it would be deceiving to say it was a weak session overall.

Yesterday, we exited our position in SLV, locking in a small gain. We haven’t been thrilled by the price action since our late stage entry, so we will simply re-assess for a potentially better entry point. We also entered a new trade yesterday, via an Intraday Trade Alert.

The inversely correlated UltraShort Semiconductor ProShares ETF (SSG) hit its trigger for a partial buy entry. Over the past five sessions, SSG has been consolidating just above support of its 50-day MA, on declining volume (which is bullish in this case). Yesterday, this ETF gapped up, breaking out above resistance of its hourly downtrend line, and managed to close just four cents below the two-day high. A move above yesterday’s high of $50.86, and above the three day high of $51.41, could provide a confirmed buy entry point for a trend reversal in this ETF. Full trade details are available to our members in the “open positions” section of this issue of The Wagner Daily below. Here is a snapshot of the pattern on the daily chart:

SSG

Breaking it down to the shorter-term hourly chart, notice how SSG is also breaking out above the downtrend line from the mid-March high. Whenever there is confirmation on multiple time frames, the odds of a successful trade are increased:

SSG2

The Guggenheim Canadian Energy ETF (ENY) has been consolidating in a tight, sixty-cent trading range for the past nine days. A move back above yesterday’s high of $22.94 may present a buying opportunity in this ETF. The setup is shown on the daily chart below:

ENY

There is an interesting divergence taking place among the major indices. While the Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 have roared to new highs, and the Dow is close to its 52 week high, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq remain well below key breakout levels. This divergence is somewhat concerning, as the Nasdaq is widely considered a leading indicator for the broad market direction. Further, the S&P 500 generally provides a good proxy for market breadth. Also of interest is the lack of volume during the most recent leg higher, combined with a mild session of distribution yesterday. Nonetheless, the market appears poised to move higher. Ultimately, we have no desire to fight the trend, but astute traders may agree a healthy degree of caution is warranted right now.


Today’s Watchlist:

Buy stop remains live for trigger of remaining half position (100 shares) of SSG at $51.47. Stop will remain at $48.79 on the full position if it triggers. See chart above for explanation of the setup.


Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices.

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    Notes:

  • Per Intraday Trade Alert, we bought 100 shares (HALF position) of SSG when it triggered at $50.81 yesterday. Setup remains live for potential trigger on second half of entry at $51.47. By scaling in to the trade in this manner, we initially assume only a small degree of risk, then add to the position only upon receiving price confirmation.
  • Per Intraday Trade Alert, we also made a judgment call to sell SLV for a small gain. We still like the setup, but will re-assess for possible entry with better reward/risk ratio, such as on a slight pullback or after period of consolidation.
  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
  • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader

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