market timing model: SELL
Current signal generated on close of Feb. 3.
Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 0% to 60% long (or more), depending on how open positions have held up.
Past signals:
Neutral signal generated on close of January 24.
- Buy signal generated on close of November 13
- Buy signal generated on close of September 9
- Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
- Buy signal generated on close of July 11
- Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
- Sell signal generated on close of June 24
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
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open positions:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.
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closed positions:
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ETF position notes:
- $DZZ sell stop triggered and we are out with a 10% loss on a 50% position.
stock position notes:
- Sold partial size in $SYNA on the open for a 12% gain.
ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:
Stocks rallied across the board, with most major averages up 1.0% or more on the session. Tuesday’s strong advance was confirmed by volume, as turnover increased on the NYSE and NASDAQ, producing an accumulation day in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
The volume pattern in the Nasdaq has cleaned up nicely with two of the past three sessions registering a bullish accumulation day.
The Nasdaq is running into resistance of the prior high, so a short-term pullback to or just below the 50-day MA could develop within the next few days.
How the Nasdaq reacts volume wise to a potential selloff will be key, as we do not want to see multiple distribution days.
The S&P 500 reclaimed the 50-day MA on a pick up in volume. If the S&P 500 is able to hold the 50-day MA this week, then our timing model could shift back into buy mode, as most leading stocks have held up well.
After a strong surge off the 50-day MA in late January, Coffee ETF ($JO) has paused for a few days, correcting more by time than price (shallow correction).
The combination of tight trading range and light volume the past few days is bullish, so $JO should eventually move higher after a shor-term break.
We are placing $JO on today’s watchlist. Please see trade details above.
Biotech ETF ($PBS) broke out from a continuation pattern on Tuesday, after three-weeks of tight price action above $40. A test of the $42 area or a touch of 10-day MA could present us with a low risk entry point on weakness (if it pulls back in).
We stopped out of our short position in gold yesterday as $DZZ triggered its sell stop at $6.60. Gold stocks have been strong and may present us with a buy entry in a few weeks if they continue to hold up.
On the stock side, we sold partial size in $SYNA for a 12% gain.
Since $WDAY reports earnings later this month we are raising the stop to guard against a false breakout. If earnings were not a factor, then we would patiently hold on to our position with a stop beneath the lows of the current range.
We plan to hold A rated stocks $FB, $TSLA, and $SCTY through earnings. To produce big returns we eventually have to hold through earnings, which is fine as long we are holding an A rated stock.
After a breakaway gap up to new highs and a strong follow through in $KORS, we are patiently waiting for a low risk pullback entry to emerge. Could $KORS follow last year’s gap up in $FB?
