($GLD) breaking down on the hourly chart

market timing model:

– Signal generated on the close of April 30 (click here for more details)

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist
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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based a $100,000 model portfolio. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

$todays watchlist
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closed positions:

open position summary
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ETF position notes:

  • No trades were made.

stock position notes:

  • No trades were made.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

The market continued its impressive run on Tuesday with strong gains across the board on higher volume. The hourly chart of the S&P 500 tells the story, as the price action has refused to break down below the 20-period EMA since mid-April.

$SPY trend

With the market quite extended in the short-term, we would welcome a sharp, one to three day decline to wash out some of the late to the party longs.

After stalling at resistance of the 20-day EMA in late April1, SPDR Gold Trust ETF ($GLD) broke a short-term support level at 139.50 and is beginning to break down on the hourly chart with lower highs and lower lows in place. The daily chart below shows the declining 20-day EMA around 141.00, which should provide resistance on any bounce.

$GLD rolling over

We have already established a short position in $GLD by going long the leveraged Gold Double Short ETN ($DZZ) on May 1. We are looking for a test of the prior swing high as the target.

Along with our short in gold, we are currently long ETFs $TAO, $UNG, and $EIDO. $TAO is in pullback mode the past few days and could present us with a low risk entry to add to the position later this week or early next week. $UNG is trying to bounce after last week’s shakeout below the 50-day MA. We may see $UNG settle in to a tight range this week and breakout above this week’s high and the 50-day MA next week. $EIDO has yet to extend from the breakout pivot, but the price action has formed a bullish, base on base pattern since the beginning of March and could be ready to breakout later this week.

On the stock side, $P followed through nicely to the upside along with $URI. Tuesday’s move in $LNKD may have bailed us out of a position that was in danger of stopping us out, as it reclaimed the 50-day MA on higher volume. We are canceling the $SLCA and $RGEN buy setups for now, as we are waiting for bullish reversal candles to print and present us with low risk entry points.

We have one new setup on today’s watchlist in $RLD. After running up on heavy volume in mid-April, $RLD has pulled back the rising 20-day EMA and formed a tight-ranged base at the highs of the last move. Since the false breakout on 5/6, the volume has declined while the price action has held the 10-day MA. Our entry is over Tuesday’s high with a pretty tight stop. We are looking for a quick 20-30% pop in 3 to 10 days.


relative strength combo watchlist:

Our Relative Strength Combo Watchlist makes it easy for subscribers to import data into their own scanning software, such as Tradestation, Interactive Brokers, and TC2000. This list is comprised of the strongest stocks (technically and fundamentally) in the market over the past six to 12 months. The scan is updated every Sunday, and this week’s RS Combo Watchlist can be downloaded by logging in to the Members Area of our web site.

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