market timing model: Neutral
Current signal generated on close of November 6.Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 0% to 30% long depending on how individual setups are holding up. Now is not the time to press the long side. Honor stops.Past signals:
- Buy signal generated on close of September 9
- Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
- Buy signal generated on close of July 11
- Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
- Sell signal generated on close of June 24
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
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open positions:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.
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closed positions:
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ETF position notes:
- Note the split entry in the $PALL buy setup.
stock position notes:
- No trades were made.
ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:
Stocks rallied during the first half hour of trading and then chopped around in a tight range the rest of the day. All major averages closed in positive territory, though gains were minimal.
Turnover was significantly lower on both exchanges, but that is to be expected when there is very little volatility intraday.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 have just about recovered all losses from last Thursday’s selloff, while the NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 are having a bit more trouble. The NASDAQ Composite and small-cap Russell 2000 are also further off swing highs than the Down Jones and S&P 500, which could easily break to new highs tomorrow.
In last week’s report, we mentioned a potential breakout on multiple time frames in ETFS Physical Palladium Shares ($PALL). After gapping above the highs of the handle last week, the price action has pulled back in the past three days on light volume.
Rather than establishing the entire position on a breakout above last week’s high, the potential short-term pullback presents us with a low risk entry point at support from the prior range highs and the rising 20-day EMA. Trade details can be found above.
SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD) remains in a clear downtrend after breaking down below the 50-day MA in September. Rather than bottoming out, $GLD looks poised to move to new 52-week lows soon with two lower swing highs already in place. A bounce to the 20 and 50-day MAs would present us with an ideal entry point on the short side. Note that the 20-day EMA has crossed back below the 50-day MA, and that all the major averages are now trending lower.
Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF ($GXG) has had a rough 2013. While broad market averages pushed significantly higher, $GXG broke down below the 40-week MA and tanked until finding support in June. $GXG has once again cracked the 40-week MA over the past three weeks. A bounce into the the 40-week MA somewhere around $20 could present us with a low risk short entry.
On the stock side, we continue to monitor $KORS and $MDCO for low risk entry points on a pullback.
$BURL is a recent IPO that has basically chopped around in a tight range the past few weeks. A breakout above $28 on heavy volume could spark a rally. This is not an official setup.
$GOGO gapped to new highs on big volume Monday. We will continue to monitor the action for a low risk pullback entry to the rising 10-day MA.