market timing model: BUY
Current signal generated on close of November 13.
Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 50 to 100% long. If positions are holding up well, then one can add exposure beyond 100%.
Past signals:
- Neutral signal generated on close of November 6.
- Buy signal generated on close of September 9
- Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
- Buy signal generated on close of July 11
- Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
- Sell signal generated on close of June 24
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
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open positions:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.
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closed positions:
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ETF position notes:
- $PSP buy stop triggered.
stock position notes:
- $SCTY buy stop did not trigger due to 5-minute rule. Note that the 5-minute rule will not apply to $SCTY and $OTIV entries today.
ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:
The stock market responded favorably to Wednesday’s Fed meeting, as the major averages ripped higher in the afternoon session, posting significant gains (1% or more) across the board.
The strong price action was confirmed by heavy volume on both exchanges (NYSE +32% volume increase and NASDAQ +20%). The combination of strong price and volume action produced a very bullish session, which could spark the next wave up in the market.
Our $PSP buy entry triggered yesterday and it closed at a new 52-week high. Due to yesterday’s bullish reversal, we are adding to our position in $SOCL. Please see the ETF watchlist above for trade details.
With an explosive afternoon session, our long position in $FAS closed at a new high for the year on big volume. We remain long from a 78.70 entry on Nov. 14.
iShares Hong Kong ETF ($EWH) also put in a bullish reversal candle yesterday. After undercutting the low of December 11, $EWH then reversed back up to close above the 50-day MA. Volume was strong as well, coming in at 50% above the 50-day moving average of volume.
On the weekly chart, $EWH is poised to breakout from a seven month long consolidation. Notice that the price action has formed a tight range over the past two months just below the high of last May.
If $EWH can clear the highs of 2013, then it should have a clear path to $24, where there is resistance from the prior high of 2007.
$EWH has been added to today’s watchlist. Please see above for trade details.
On the stock side, $LNKD triggered our buy limit order on the open yesterday. The price action sold off sharply, with limit orders being filled around $214 on the open. Although $LNKD reversed off the lows of the day it is still not out of the woods. Note the lower stop.
$MCHP reclaimed the 50-day MA on heavy volume. We are looking for a slight pullback as a buy entry and have a buy limit order in place. $MCHP is an A rated setup.
After a monster price and volume move off the lows, $OTIV has pulled back for a few weeks to the 20-day EMA. Volume has lightened up on the pullback which is a bullish sign. $OTIV closed above the downtrend line either today or yesterday (depending on how the trendline is drawn), and should begin to resume its uptrend shortly.
Due to the lack of liquidity in $OTIV, we are going with reduced share size. The idea is to trade the setup for a 30-40% move. This is not a trade to hold for several months. That type of trading is reserved for A rated stocks like $MCHP or $SCTY. Please note that the 5-minute rule has been waived.