It Ain’t Over Til The Market Says So


US equities ended the session higher on increased trade. All five major indices closed modestly higher with small and mid cap stocks leading the way. The S&P MidCap 400 added 0.8% while the small-cap Russell 2000 improved by 0.7%. The blue chip DJIA and Nasdaq posted gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. It is noteworthy that the NYSE ended the session lower by 0.1%.

Wednesday’s moderately higher price action was not backed by strong internals. Volume increased on the session by 5.7% on the Nasdaq and by 2.4% on the Dow. However, the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume closed the day at 1 to 1 on both major exchanges. In the absence of strong internals we would not consider yesterday to be an accumulation day for the broad market. Instead we would classify yesterday as a consolidation day for the market. Following a seven day run we would expect to see some “discussion” between bears and bulls.

The PowerShares Dynamic Food and Beverage ETF (PBJ) demonstrated excellent relative strength during the recent selloff in the market. As the broad market tested the 200-day MA, PBJ only undercut its 50-day MA. PBJ is now consolidating near its all time high. Ideally we would like to see PBJ consolidate for several days to several weeks in order to provide a clear setup. A breakout from the current three day base could easily fail. We will be monitoring this ETF closely for a potential long trigger.

The First Trust Amex Biotechnology ETF (FBT) has reclaimed its 50-day MA and has now been consolidating for the past five sessions. A volume fueled move back above yesterday’s high of $44.63 or a pullback into support near the 20-day and 50-day MAs could provide buying opportunities in this ETF.

The broad market continued to consolidate near the three day highs yesterday. Although many technical indicators may be providing overbought readings, the longer the market consolidates, the more likely it becomes that we will move higher.

Today’s Watchlist:

There are no new official setups for today. We will send an Intraday Alert if any new trades are made.

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

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  • SLV buy setup triggered after the first five minutes of trading.
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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader