Japan ETF back above 50-day MA ($EWJ)

market timing model: BUY

Current signal generated on close of July 11.

Portfolio exposure should at least be 75% to 100% long or more (if you can go on margin).

Past signals:

    • Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
    • Sell signal generated on close of June 24

(click here for more details)

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist

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open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits. Click here to learn the best way to calculate your share size.
$todays watchlist

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closed positions:

open position summary

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ETF position notes:

  • $FCG buy entry triggered.

stock position notes:

  • $BERY buy entry triggered.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

Tuesday was a relatively quiet day, with only the small cap Russell 2000 posting a modest gain of 0.3%. With our timing model in buy mode and leading stocks breaking out to new highs, all systems are still go. For those who are new to our service, when the market is in a strong uptrend, we focus less on the price action of the major avearages and more on how leading stocks are acting. At the start of a bull market, we tend to focus a lot more on the averages, at least until the new uptrend builds enough momentum.

The $FCG buy stop order triggered yesterday on an uptick in volume, but still needs to break throughj 17.80 to establish a new high for the year. The $IGE buy stop order did not trigger and remains open. Although we stopped out of our add in $TAN last week for a small loss, the price action snapped right back yesterday on higher volume. Because of this, we plan to re-enter $TAN over the highs of the current range. Trade details can be found in the watchlist section above.

After a four day shakeout below the 50-day MA, iShares MSCI Japan Index ($EWJ) is now back above the 50-day MA and the 20-day EMA as well. We look for the price action to hold above $11 from here on out. On the daily chart, note that the 20-day EMA was below the 50-day MA as the price action pulled back in during May and June. The 20-day EMA is now back above the 50-day MA, and there are now two higher lows within the base on 6/24 and 7/29.


Last week’s recovery in $EWJ produced an uptick in the 10-week moving average line, which is now starting to trend higher for the first time in a few months. The 40-week MA remains in a strong uptrend.

$EWJ weekly uptrend

$BERY triggered its buy stop order but failed to follow through in the afternoon. $SCTY rallied over 8% on volume that was more than double its 50-day average. $SCTY reports earnings tomorrow after 4:00 pm, so if you don’t want to hold through the report you can exit before the close.

We have a tight stop in place for $MNKD to lock in gains ahead of earnings this week. Well, we believe earnings is this week as they have yet to confirm a date, but we know it does not report on Tuesday.

We cancelled the $HIMX setup since it is so close to earnings. However, for experienced traders, it could still pop ahead of earnings on a move above 6.74. The setup is no longer official, so its result will not be tracked.

We have one new buy setup in Broadwind Energy – ($BWEN):

$BWEN is not an A rated setup, so we would not exit a position to enter $BWEN. The weekly chart shows a tight base of consolidation after a 100% plus move off the lows. Not pictured is the monthly chart, where $BWEN has recently broken a long-term downtrend line. The buy entry is over last week’s high, with a tight stop beneath last week’s low. We are looking for a move to new highs at the very least, but if the price action remains strong, we see potential for a move to $7.50 – $8. Since $BWEN trades with light volume, we are going with a 1/3 position.


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