Commentary:
Stocks closed near session highs yesterday but on light trade. Smaller cap stocks led the move with the small-cap Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 adding 3.3% and 2.9% respectively. The Nasdaq tacked on 2.4% while the S&P 500 climbed 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the laggard on the day as it only managed to post a 0.9% gain.
For a second consecutive day market internals were mixed. Volume plunged by over 20.0% on the Nasdaq but slid by a more moderate 5.3% on the NYSE. However, advancing volume topped declining volume by 6.6 to 1 on the NYSE and 9.4 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Although the market raced higher yesterday, the weak market internals suggest that institutional players were on the sidelines.
A quick review of the major indices that we track clearly demonstrates that the entire market is approaching key resistance. Notice that the Nasdaq has exhibited the most relative strength during this rally as it is the only major index to have reached its 200-day MA. Also notice that both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are within striking distance of their respective 200-day moving averages. However, the S&P MidCap 400 and the small-cap Russell 2000 are showing relative weakness as both are well below their 200-day moving average.
Despite our shift to a moderately bullish view of the market recently, several key momentum indicators that we follow are signaling that the market is approaching an overbought state. Further, we are approaching major resistance levels on all of the major indices. Therefore, caution on the long side of the market is warranted in the short run.
Today’s Watchlist:
There are no new setups for today. As always, we will send an intraday alert if any new trades are made.
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
- No trades were made.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader