ETFs and market commentary:
Stocks closed lower on lighter trade yesterday. All five major indices closed in the red, led by a 0.8% drop in the small-cap Russell 2000. The Nasdaq slid 0.5%, while the S&P MidCap 400 faded 0.4%. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The coal, real estate, banking and construction sectors took the brunt of the punishment on Wednesday. A few of the bright spots included, oil services, gold mining and consumer finance.
Market internals were negative yesterday, but light volume prevented a distribution day. Turnover slid by 6.3% on the Nasdaq and 8.1 % on the Big Board. Declining volume topped advancing volume across the board by a factor of 2 to 1.
In early February, the iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index ETF (EEM) rallied above resistance of its long term downtrend line and 200-day MA. Since breaking out, EEM has been consolidating in a tight range above the 200-day MA and now offers two potential long entry alternatives. EEM could offer a buying opportunity on a breakout above the three day high near $44.10 or on a pullback and undercut of its 20-day EMA. We are monitoring this ETF closely for a potential long setup.
Yesterday, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) saw a distribution day, as it sold off on increasing volume. XHB is now clinging to support just below its 20-day EMA. If XHB does not reverse off of this support level, it will likely find support at its uptrend line. A pullback into the uptrend line could provide a buying opportunity in XHB, but a better alternative would be for XHB to hold support and form a reversal candle at the 20-day EMA.
Our open position in IAU performed admirably yesterday but is getting close to a key resistance level near $17.60. We will likely be looking to at least lighten up on the position if it trades near this mark. The market continued to struggle yesterday but key support levels remain intact on all of the major indices. For the moment a pullback seems likely and may be what is needed before the market potentially makes another move higher.
Today’s ETF Watchlist:
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner DailySubscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.
Notes:
- There are no new official setups for today.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
Due to the lack of follow through on recent buy setups and a few distribution days in the Nasdaq, we having been laying low the past few days in cash waiting for low risk buy setups to emerge. The evidence suggests that any pullback in the market should be short lived, so we will continue to run our scans and build our watchlist so that we are prepared for the next advance.
We are montoring the price action in N, IACI, LKQX, VPHM, RAX, CELG, and SYNA. The chart below shows the bullish action in N:
Today’sStock Watchlist:
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below.
Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.
Notes:
- There are no new official setups for today.
Relative Strength Watchlist:
The Relative Strength (or RS) Watchlist makes it easy for subscribers to import data into their own scanning software, such as Tradestation, Interactive Brokers, and TC2000. The list is comprised of the strongest 100 (or so) stocks in the market over the past six to 12 months. The scan is based on the following criteria and is updated every Monday:
- Stock is in a well defined uptrend, trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average (both moving averages should be in an uptrend as well).
- Today’s close is less than 20% off the 52-week high
- Close is greater than $5.
- Volume is greater than 200,000 shares per day (using a 50-day volume moving average).
Click here to view this week’s Relative Strength Watchlist in excel
Click here to view this week’s Relative Strength Watchlist as a text file