Commentary:
For the third time in as many days, stocks showed little direction, and ended the session mixed. By the closing bell three of the five major indices were up and two were down. Higher beta issues led the way, as the small-cap Russell 2000, S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq posted gains of 0.7%, 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The S&P 500 slid modestly to close down 0.1%. The DJIA was the session’s laggard as it dropped 0.3%. After the close, AAPL skyrocketed over 30 points, following a positive earnings announcement. The retail, real estate, oil service, networking and software sectors were strong yesterday. Healthcare, transportation, miners and utilities all showed relative weakness yesterday.
Market internals ended mixed for the session. Volume was lower on the NYSE by 2.1% and on the Nasdaq by 3.3%. However, advancing volume upped declining volume by a factor of 1.1 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. The light volume suggests that institutions were not particularly active on Tuesday, possibly in anticipation of Apple’s earnings announcement.
On Monday the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) surged above its 200-day MA on a burst of volume. Yesterday, this ETF lost support of this key moving average before recovering into the close, to close near session highs. Yesterday’s shakeout move and recovery in XOP, suggests that this ETF may be prepared for a move higher. This is exactly the type of price action we like to see prior to a breakout. A move above the two day high of $55.59 could provide a buy entry trigger for XOP. We will be watching this setup carefully for a possible long entry.
Our open positions in IYT and IYR performed well yesterday. IYR showed excellent relative strength as it shook off an early setback to close higher on the day. Further, IYR formed a bullish engulfing candle and appears well positioned to challenge last summer’s highs. IYT gapped down and tested key support at the 20-day EMA, but reversed to close near session highs. IYZ struggled for most of the session but also managed to hold support of its 20-day EMA. Although we raised all of our stops yesterday, none were hit, and we remain in all three positions. We were careful in selecting our stop placement, in order to avoid getting swept from the positions in the event of a move, like the one we witnessed today. Our watchlist candidates, DVY and XLP, both remain legitimate setups and all setup paramaters are the same. Refer to the watchlist for specific trade details.
What occurred intraday was uneventful. However, after the close, AAPL beat both revenue and earnings estimates, and the shares of the tech giant surged over 30 points. This move sent the Nasdaq futures higher by nearly 0.9%. It is just this type of scenario that has kept us away from the short side of the market. Although we have been commenting for several days that the market appears primed for a pullback, this is not an environment that is easy to short.
Today’s Watchlist:
XLP
Long
Shares = 500
Trigger = 32.53
Stop = 31.84
Target = new swing high
Dividend Date = n/a
Notes = See commentary from Jan. 24th
DVY
Long
Shares = 300
Trigger = 54.62
Stop = 53.48
Target = new swing high
Dividend Date = n/a
Notes = see commentary from Jan. 24th
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
- No trades were made.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
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Notes:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and
Head Trader