--> Peru ($EPU) and Gas ($UGA) Ready to Breakout?

Peru ($EPU) and Gas ($UGA) Ready to Breakout?

ETFs and market commentary:

Stocks recovered from a morning gap down to close lower but well off session lows, on light trade. Small cap stocks suffered the most yesterday as the Russell 2000 and the S&P MidCap 400 shed 1.0% and 0.7% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial average lost just over 0.5% while the S&P 500 closed down by 0.3%. The Led by strong a strong recovery by AAPL and a strong performance by AMZN, the Nasdaq showed the most resiliency on the day as it finished lower by a scant 0.1%. Airlines, retailers and banks fared well on the day, while the coal, oil services and transportation sectors struggled.

Market internals closed mixed for a fifth consecutive session yesterday. Volume was down on the Nasdaq by almost 2.0% and on the NYSE by 3.1%. Declining volume topped advancing volume by a ratio of 1.8 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.4 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Yesterday’s light volume takes a lot of the sting out of the selloff. What’s most important is that we avoided a distribution day on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE.

Over the past three weeks the iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index (EPU) has been consolidating in a tight range as it has set a sequence of higher lows. Yesterday, EPU formed a big reversal candle as it undercut the 20-day EMA but managed to recover and close in the upper 25% of its intraday range. A volume fueled move above the two day high of $44.88 could provide a buying opportunity in EPU. We are placing EPU on the watchlist. Trade details are provided for our subscribers in the watchlist section of the newsletter.

The United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) has formed a technical pattern similar to EPU, as it has set a sequence of higher lows over the past three weeks. Further, on March 15th, UGA formed a distinct reversal candle and now appears primed to take out the swing high pivot set on March 14th. A move above the March 14th high of $58.07 will likely provide a buy entry trigger for this ETF.

IYR was the only one of our four positions that showed relative strength yesterday. USO and DIG both gapped down significantly yesterday and closed in the bottom third of their respective intraday ranges. Although UWM also gapped down significantly, it did manage to close in the upper half of its intraday range. Overall, we would consider yesterday a victory for market bulls since a distribution day was avoided and for the most part the major indices recovered most of their losses into the close. As we continue to avoid distribution days, it appears more and more likely that the market is headed higher.

Today’s ETF Watchlist:


Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner DailySubscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

position summary

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Notes:

  • No trades were made.

  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.

  • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.

Stocks:

 

Our positions held up well yesterday with the exception of CLR, which closed below the 20-day EMA on a pick up in volume. We cancelled the WCG buy setup to add to our position. Let’s see if the price action can hold the 20-day EMA over the next few days before we add more size. We have two buy setups on today’s watchlist. We are adding to existing positions in N and SWI over the high of yesterday’s bullish reversal candles.

Today’s Stock Watchlist:


Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below.

Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.

Notes:

  • WCG buy setup was cancelled.


Relative Strength Watchlist:

The Relative Strength (or RS) Watchlist makes it easy for subscribers to import data into their own scanning software, such as Tradestation, Interactive Brokers, and TC2000. The list is comprised of the strongest 100 (or so) stocks in the market over the past six to 12 months. The scan is based on the following criteria and is updated every Monday:

  • Stock is in a well defined uptrend, trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average (both moving averages should be in an uptrend as well).
  • Today’s close is less than 20% off the 52-week high
  • Close is greater than $5.
  • Volume is greater than 200,000 shares per day (using a 50-day volume moving average).

Click here to view this week’s Relative Strength Watchlist in excel

Click here to view this week’s Relative Strength Watchlist as a text file

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