Potential buy entry in (AMJ)


On Monday stocks opened the day with promise but slid in late trading. After an opening gap up, the major indices chopped their way to session highs. At one point in the session the Dow was up as much as 0.8%. However, by 2:00 pm the markets slid helplessly into the close. Monday ended with slightly mixed results. The S&P MidCap 400 logged a 0.2% gain on the day, while both Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small-cap Russell 2000 eked out 0.1% advances. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

Turnover on Monday was noticeably down. Volume on the Nasdaq slid by 14.9% for the session. NYSE volume dropped 16.5% on the day. Declining volume slightly outpaced advancing volume on both indices. The ratio on the NYSE was 1.1 to 1 and on the Nasdaq 1.2 to 1. Overall, Monday’s action was unspectacular as there were no signs of Institutional involvement.

Yesterday, our target of $37.85 was met in TBT and we exited the trade with a 12% (4-pt) gain. The model account netted more than $1,700 from this position. The chart of TBT posted below provides the technical analysis behind our target price. Note the horizontal resistance established by connecting the swing highs set in July. By exiting the position at this price, we sold into strength. TBT may very well see the overhead 200-day MA, but by selling into the rally we were more likely to get a good fill, since this ETF could easily pull back from resistance before making a run at the 200-day MA.

The Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) is well positioned to continue its recent advance. In the past several trading days KOL rallied above January 15th swing high. This move was accompanied by strong increase in volume. KOL meets many of the entry requirements that we discussed in Monday’s newsletter. It is important to note that, as a commodity related play, this ETF does not share a high correlation to the market. Given the recent indecisiveness with the major indices, KOL provides a higher probability of being a successful trade should the market continue its decline. In addition, it is exhibiting overall relative strength. We are carefully watching for an entry point in this trade and will provide an intraday alert if we enter a position.

AMJ was discussed as a possible long entry in the November 15th newsletter. Due to its relative strength against a flat market yesterday, we are now putting AMJ on the watchlist. For our subscribing members, trade details can be found in the watchlist segment of the newsletter.

The markets appear to be at an inflection point. In the midst of options expiration week we are inclined to remain cautious, and base our trading on the technical criteria discussed in Monday’s newsletter.

Today’s Watchlist:


Shares = 250
Trigger = 36.91
Stop = 35.61
Target = (will send alert)
Dividend Date = n/a

Notes = See commentary above

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

    position summary

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  • Per intraday alert, we sold TBT at our target price of 37.85, locking in a strong $1,700 gain.

  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.

  • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.

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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader