Potential short setup in (HAO)


On subdued volume, the major indices rallied on Tuesday to close near the session highs. Stocks gapped up at the opening bell and steadily churned their way to higher territory throughout the day. However, there was a noticeable burst of selling in the last 20 minutes of trading, with the Dow being put under the most pressure. As has been common over the past several weeks, the market found leadership from the small-cap Russell 2000. The high beta index advanced by 1.0%, as both the S&P MidCap 400 and the Nasdaq gained 0.7% on the day. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6% for the day. For the second consecutive day the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged all major averages. Nonetheless, the blue chip index posted a respectable 0.5% gain yesterday.

Volume was light on the session. Turnover declined on the NYSE and the Nasdaq by 4.7% and 1.8% respectively. Advancing volume outpaced declining volume by 3.7 to 1 on the NYSE and 2.6 to 1 on the Nasdaq. As would be expected, volume has been muted coming into the Christmas holiday.

The SPDR Dow Jones Wilshire International Real Estate ETF (RWX), fell victim to a massive gap down on December 17th. Since then, this ETF has recovered minimally on a large spike in volume. Further, since the November 4th high, RWX has set a lower-low (11/30), a lower-high (12/14) and another lower-low (12/17). This sequence of price moves suggests a trend reversal may be underway. A rally back into resistance near the down-trending 20-day EMA, could provide a shorting opportunity for this ETF.

The Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF (HAO), may be in the midst of a significant pullback. Over the past several months this ETF has formed a head and shoulders-like pattern. In mid November HAO was met with a wave of high volume selling. Then last week, an even bigger round of selling occurred, driving HAO below the neckline. The recent price action as also resulted in the 20-day EMA crossing below the 50-day MA. This is generally considered a bearish technical indicator. Yesterday, HAO could only rally minimally on a large spike in volume. This ETF is showing many signs of possible institutional distribution. A move back into the 20-day EMA may very well provide a short entry trigger for this ETF. We are monitoring HAO closely for a possible short entry.

Although the market has been moving to new highs, the move has lacked conviction. We are beginning to find a significant number of short setups from our daily scans. When this occurs, we are prone to be cautious. Consequently, we are tightening our stops in several of our open positions, and actively preparing to trade either side of the market.

Today’s Watchlist:

There a no new official setups this morning. We will send an intraday alert if any new trades are made.

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

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  • Raised the stop price in XOP and PHO.

  • The stop in UNG will either be the original stop of 5.47 OR 5 cents below the low of the first 20 minutes, whichever is lower.

  • EWZ and its inverse BZQ were both down yesterday because EWZ was trading ex-dividend. On Tuesday EWZ paid a $2.33 dividend.
  • Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
  • For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.

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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader