Potential Trend Reversal in Egypt Index ETF ($EGPT)

market timing model: BUY

Current signal generated on close of September 9.

Portfolio long exposure can be anywhere from 30%-50% if you just joined the letter, or up to 100% (if your stocks are holding up).

Past signals:

    • Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
    • Buy signal generated on close of July 11
    • Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
    • Sell signal generated on close of June 24

(click here for more details)

today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist

Having trouble seeing the open positions graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your web browser instead.

open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits. Click here to learn the best way to calculate your share size.
$todays watchlist

Having trouble seeing the open positions graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your web browser instead.

closed positions:

open position summary

Having trouble seeing the closed positions graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your web browser instead.

ETF position notes:

  • No trades were made.

stock position notes:

  • $VNDA buy setup triggered. $ONVO sell stop triggered (35% position) and we are out.

ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:

Stocks fought off some early morning weakness and pushed higher most of the day. Surprisingly, the Dow Jones was strong out of the gate, and led the market higher all day. Yesterday’s 0.9% advance in the Dow put the index over the 50-day MA, joining all the other major averages, which is a bullish sign. Turnover eased on both exchanges, preventing the S&P 500 and Dow from registering a bullish accumulation day. However, with the market timing model in buy mode, our concern now shifts to the market avoiding distribution days.

After an ugly selloff from last December to late June, Market Vectors Egypt ETF ($EGPT) reversed off the lows on big volume and rallied 20% higher before stalling out around $47. After a near two month consolidation that held above the rising 10-week MA, $EGPT broke above the highs of the range this week on a pick up in volume. The price action also cleared the 40-week MA (in orange) on the weekly chart below.


If the current breakout holds, the next levels of resistance are at $50 and $52 – $53, which is where we will look to exit the position if our buy entry triggers (see watchlist above for trade details).

On the daily chart, notice how the price action tightened up nicely during the past two weeks just above the rising 50-day MA. Yes, the 50-day MA is still below the 200-day MA, but the 50ma is in a clear uptrend with the price action now above the 200ma.

$EGPT breakout

On the stock side, $VNDA triggered a buy entry and we are now long. The price action failed to follow through, but did did hold above the prior day’s low. A move above $12.02 is a potential entry point for those who missed yesterday’s entry. $ONVO stopped us out yesterday, as it failed to do much of anything after triggering.

We have one new setup in today’s watchlist in $SCTY.

$SCTY put in monster reversal candle on Tuesday, up 20% or so on big volume. This action puts the stock back on our radar, and we are looking for a slight pullback entry to yesterday’s low (around 20 ema) using a buy limit order. $SCTY can only trigger a long entry if it trades at or below our buy limit order. The stop is placed beneath the low of the big reversal candle. Our thinking is that this candle should hold up due to the big volume. We will look to add to the position if it forms a tight range above the 50-day MA down the road.


Please leave your comment below!

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *