Pullback entry in Commodity Index ETF (DJP)


Stocks reversed off of session lows on Thursday, and carried all five major indices to new highs. However, trade was soft. For a second consecutive day the small-cap Russell 2000 led all indices, as it ended the day 0.7% higher. The S&P MidCap 400, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq posted gains of 0.5%, 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively.

Despite relatively strong price performance in the market, Thursday’s internals were mixed. Turnover was off by 15.2% on the Nasdaq and 4.4% on the NYSE. For a second consecutive day advancing volume outperformed declining volume. The ratio of up to down volume ended the session at 2.3 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.5 to 1 on the Nasdaq.

Based on today’s price performance by KBE, the setup has been nullified and we are removing it from the watchlist. We are still monitoring the price action in PALL for a potential add above the three-day high (we will send alert if any action is taken).

The iPath DJ-UBS Commodity Index Trust ETN (DJP) has spent the past 8 weeks consolidating along its 20-day EMA. Recently DJP undercut this key moving average thereby “shaking out” the weak hands. Yesterday DJP rallied almost the entire day and finished virtually at its intraday high. We are placing DJP on the watchlist. For our subscribing members, trade details are available in the watchlist segment of the newsletter.

The iPath DJ AIG Copper Trust (JJC) formed a bullish reversal candle yesterday on an explosive increase in volume. A rally above the two day high of $60.44 presents a possible long trigger for this ETF. We will be monitoring JJC closely for a possible entry point.

Our trading approach adheres strictly to technical analysis, as we believe that all market information is reflected in the daily price and volume action of charts. Spending an exorbitant amount of time reflecting on news or hunting down explanations as to why the market is moving in a particular direction is in our opinion, a wasteful endeavor. This is why we have maintained a bullish bias despite being cautious about the conviction of the current advance. Still, we have been willing to play the short side of the market when our technical criteria suggest that we should do so.

Today’s Watchlist:


Shares = 450
Trigger = 49.59
Stop = 48.55
Target = new 52-week highs
Dividend Date = n/a

Notes = see commentary above

Daily Performance Report:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner Daily Subscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices

    position summary

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  • ILF triggered its stop on the remaining half position and we are now out. KBE and EUM have been removed from the watchlist.
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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and
      Head Trader