market timing model: BUY
Current signal generated on close of November 13.
Portfolio exposure can be anywhere from 75 to 100% long. If positions are holding up well, then one can add exposure beyond 100% (for experienced traders only).
Past signals:
- Neutral signal generated on close of November 6.
- Buy signal generated on close of September 9
- Neutral signal generated on close of August 15
- Buy signal generated on close of July 11
- Neutral signal generated on close of July 5
- Sell signal generated on close of June 24
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
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open positions:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.
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closed positions:
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ETF position notes:
- No trades were made.
stock position notes:
- Sold 1/2 of $QUNR on the open, and the other 1/2 triggered our break-even stop.
ETF, stock, and broad market commentary:
Stocks opened higher but failed to attract much buying interest and sold off through morning session. After bottoming out during the lunchtime doldrums, the main averages pushed higher once again in the final hour of trading to close off the lows of the session.
The S&P 500, along with small and mid-cap stocks held up best, closing in the top half of the day’s range and in positive territory (though not by much). The NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 finished in the bottom third of the day’s range and in negative territory.
The NASDAQ Composite did avoid a distribution day yesterday, as it closed -0.3% lower but volume fell short of Wednesday’s pace. The averages continue to chop around, which is fine as long as they avoid multiple, heavy volume churning or distribution days.
We continue to monitor PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage ETF ($PBJ) for a breakout entry from a six-month long base at the highs. After pulling back about 7% off the highs of August, the pullback from the false breakout in late November found support just 4.5% off the high, so the price action is tightening up.
Note the past three weeks of price action, with two tight weeks of trading and a bullish reversal candle this week. $PBJ could be setting up to breakout within the next week or two.
Clean energy ETFs have put in a strong advance over the past few weeks. $TAN, $QCLN, and $FAN have all run up with little rest after breaking the daily downtrend line and clearing the 50-day MA. All three ETFs remain on our internal watchlist.
Global Wind Energy ETF ($FAN) rallied 10% higher after breaking the daily downtrend line with only one day of rest (Jan. 2). If the rally loses steam here, then we could see the price action chop around for a few weeks to let the 10-day MA catch up. This is where a low risk buy point could emerge if the price action remains tight.
On the stock side, we sold $QUNR at the open to lock in partial gains, which turned out to be a great idea because it got hit pretty hard and triggered our break-even stop at 30.19. We plan to sell half of our position in $MONT on Friday’s open as well, with a tight stop on the second half position. See the open positions section above for details.
On the stock side, $LNKD triggered late in the day and $MONT triggered above the 5-minute high. Please note that we are selling half of $QUNR on the open tomorrow.
We have one new official buy setup on today’s watchlist in Aramark Holdings – $ARMK. $ARMK is a recent IPO that is pulling back for the first time after a 30% rally. The buy entry is over the downtrend line of the pullback with a pretty tight stop.
Note the changes to some stops above. We are going with a pretty tight stop in $TOWR due to the lack of volume during yesterday’s big advance. We also have a tight stop in $SSTK on half the position.