market timing model: BUY Signal generated on close of July 7
Building long exposure with a new rally potentially underway. Exposure can be in the 50 – 100% range or more, if one has held on to positions through the market pullback.
Note that the market timing model was not created to catch tops and bottoms in the S&P 500. The model was designed to keep our trades in line with the prevailing market trend. Buy signals (confirmed) are generated when the price and volume action of leading stocks and the major averages are in harmony. This means that we could potentially have a buy signal in a major market average, but if leading stocks are not forming bullish patterns, then we are forced to remain on the sidelines until patterns improve.
today’s watchlist (potential trade entries):
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Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.
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closed positions:
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position notes:
- No trades were made.
Stocks continue to push higher with most broad market averages closing above prior swing highs on Monday.
$IBB and $XLV continue to lag the Nasdaq Composite, but $SMH and $XLK are still setting higher highs.
$CDK was added to the model portfolio on Monday, and although the price action failed to follow through, it did set a new 52-week closing high on heavier than average volume.
The hourly chart still looks good and a move above Monday’s high could generate some buying interest.
$MTCH remains on the buy watchlist, with one new pullback setup in $RP.
$RP has formed a tight trading range the past few weeks above the rising 10-week MA. If the price fails to hold the 20 EMA on the daily chart, then a test of the 10 MA on the weekly chart is possible.
Such a test would put the price action around $24, where there is also support from the weekly uptrend line and a prior swing high.
The entry is just above $24, with a stop placed below the 10-week MA minus some wiggle room.
$RP is fundamentally solid, with five quarters in a row of strong EPS and revenue growth and a 91 EPS rating from IBD.
We are also placing $RP on today’s self-serve watchlist as a buy on strength over Monday’s high in case the action refuses to pull back in.
This is an unofficial watchlist of potential setups for today’s session (trade results will not be monitored). This list is for experienced traders only who are looking for a few ideas. No targets will be listed. Please check for earnings before entering.
All stops are on a closing basis unless listed as a “hard” stop.
