ETFs and market commentary:
Stocks set new highs on Thursday but trade was mixed. As of yesterday, the small-cap Russell 2000 was still the only major index that had not set a fresh 52-week high. Still, the Russell led yesterday’s advance as it posted a 1.0% gain. The S&P MidCap 400 tacked on 0.9%, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq and DJIA saw improvements of 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Transportation, coal, financials and homebuilders were the big winners yesterday, while gold miners and computer hardware exhibited the most relative weakness.
For a second consecutive day, market internals were mixed. Volume was higher on the Nasdaq by a modest 1.0% but fell on the NYSE by 3.2%. Advancing volume topped declining volume by a factor of 3.5 to 1 on the NYSE and a by 1.9 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Based on the higher volume and the higher advancing volume, the Nasdaq earned an accumulation day yesterday.
Yesterday, on a massive spike in volume, the United States Oil Fund (USO) formed a bullish reversal candle, as it undercut the prior swing low and rallied to close near session highs. Via an intraday alert, we placed USO on the watchlist as a buy stop entry. Trade details can be found in the watchlist section of the newsletter.
The only major index that has not seen a new 52-week high in this recent rally is the small-cap Russell 2000. However the Russell has been consolidating for the past three sessions just below key resistance. Further, the Russell has begun to show signs of relative strength. Consequently, we are looking at a potential buy entry in the ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 ETF (UWM). A volume fueled move above $44.00 in UWM could present a buying opportunity. We are placing UWM on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our members in the watchlist segment of the newsletter.
Our open positions held up well yesterday. Although XLU and DIG saw selling pressure early, both ETFs managed to form reversal candles and closed within the upper third of their respective intraday ranges. Since its big breakout day on Tuesday, IYR has been consolidating and appears to be forming a bullish pennant. The broad market price action over the past three sessions has been quite bullish. Now that the Russell is within striking distance of breaking its previous swing high, a big rally could be just around the corner.
Today’s ETF Watchlist:
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 Wagner Daily model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below. Please review the Wagner DailySubscriber Guide for important, automatic rules on trigger and stop prices
Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.
Notes:
- No trades were made.
- Reminder to subscribers – Intraday Trade Alerts to your e-mail and/or mobile phone are normally only sent to indicate a CHANGE to the pre-market plan that is detailed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. We sometimes send a courtesy alert just to confirm action that was already detailed in the pre-market newsletter, but this is not always the case. If no alert is received to the contrary, one should always assume we’re honoring all stops and trigger prices listed in each morning’s Wagner Daily. But whenever CHANGES to the pre-market stops or trigger prices are necessary, alerts are sent on an AS-NEEDED basis. Just a reminder of the purpose of Intraday Trade Alerts.
- For those of you whose ISPs occasionally deliver your e-mail with a delay, make sure you’re signed up to receive our free text message alerts sent to your mobile phone. This provides a great way to have redundancy on all Intraday Trade Alerts. Send your request to [email protected] if not already set up for this value-added feature we provide to subscribers.
We established three new positions yesterday. HSTM and ARIA triggered off the watchlist while N was entered via intraday alert. For those who were unable to buy N yesterday, place a buy stop order above yesterday’s high at 48.84 as an entry. Use the same stop price and share size as we have listed in today’s open positions section.
We are 100% invested as of Thursday’s close. If IWM can breakout from its tight handle on the daily chart, then we might see a return to explosive price action in the small to mid cap stocks we follow.
Today’s Stock Watchlist:
Daily Performance Report:
Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a performance report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day’s newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $50,000 model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below.
Having trouble seeing the position summary graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your Internet browser instead.
Notes:
- ARIA and HSTM trigggered off the watclist. Per intraday alert, we cancelled the first entry in HSTM but doubled up our size on the second entry. Bought N at support of the 20-day EMA.
Relative Strength Watchlist:
The Relative Strength (or RS) Watchlist makes it easy for subscribers to import data into their own scanning software, such as Tradestation, Interactive Brokers, and TC2000. The list is comprised of the strongest 100 (or so) stocks in the market over the past six to 12 months. The scan is based on the following criteria and is updated every Monday:
- Stock is in a well defined uptrend, trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average (both moving averages should be in an uptrend as well).
- Today’s close is less than 20% off the 52-week high
- Close is greater than $5.
- Volume is greater than 200,000 shares per day (using a 50-day volume moving average).
Click here to view this week’s Relative Strength Watchlist in excel
Click here to view this week’s Relative Strength Watchlist as a text file